Timing of occurrence of a 10 times amplification of the 1-in-100 years historical extreme in CMIP6 future projections

Figure Created 13 Dec 2023 Published 17 Jan 2024 Last modified 17 Jan 2024
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The projected probability increase of a certain extreme sea level is often presented as an amplification factor (AF) that indicates the ratio between the future and historical probability of that extreme sea level (commonly the 1-in-100 years extreme event). The use of the historical probability of the 1-in-100 years extreme sea level combined with future projections of sea level rise, available from CMIP6 projections (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6), allow to provide and estimate of the year of occurrence for a 10 times amplification of the historical event (AF10) under an optimistic future scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6) and a future one without significant emissions abatement (SSP5-8.5).

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