Trends in spring phenology in Europe

Figure Created 05 Oct 2012 Published 20 Nov 2012 Last modified 27 Nov 2017
1 min read
This figure shows the spring trends of phenology 1971-2000 grouped by their mean onset date. Each dot represents a station. Dot size adjusted for clarity. A negative phenological trend corresponds to an earlier onset of spring.

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Estrella, Nicole, Sparks, Tim H. und Menzel, Annette, 2009, 'Effects of temperature, phase type and timing, location, and human density on plant phenological responses in Europe', Climate Research, 39(3), S.235–248.

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days/year

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EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (https://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: European Environment Agency (EEA).
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Effects of temperature, phase type and timing, location, and human density on plant phenological responses in Europe Phenological onset dates are closely linked to temperature. In this study, we analysed a phenological dataset collected during the COST 725 Action 'Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications', which contained more than 36 000 phenological time series for Europe covering 1971-2000. We analysed the temperature response of the phenological phases, their regional differences, and the relationship between the sizes of the local temperature and phenology trends in connection with a high-resolution climate grid of Europe. As an external factor, we examined the influence of human population density on phenology. Our analyses confirm differences in behaviour between annual and perennial plants in Europe. The average temperature response of perennial plants was significantly greater (-4.2 d°C -1 ) than that of annual agricultural crops (-3.0 d°C -1 ). The correlation between temperature and phenology trends was greatest for leaf unfolding of fruit trees and deciduous trees (r=-0.63 and -0.46, respectively). The geographic coordinates (latitude and longitude) had only a modest influence on the mean onset of the groups of phases; however, inclusion of altitude improved the models for some groups.

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