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Projected changes in water-limited crop yield

Figure Created 08 Oct 2012 Published 20 Nov 2012 Last modified 09 Feb 2017
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This map provides an aggregated picture of expected changes in crop yields across Europe for the 2050s (compared with 1961–1990). The simulations by the ClimateCrop model are based on an ensemble of 12 GCMs under the A1B emission scenario. They include effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration on crop yields of three main crops assuming current irrigated area.

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information.png Methodology:

Mean relative changes in water-limited crop yield for three crops simulated by the ClimateCrop model for the 2050s compared with 1961-1990 for 12 different climate models projections under the A1B emission scenario assuming current irrigated area.

Adapted from: 

Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Quiroga, S. and Moneo, M., 2012, 'A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe', Climatic Change 112(1), 29–46 (DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0338-8).

 

information.png Units:

%

information.png Rights:
EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (https://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: European Environment Agency (EEA).
information.png Owners:
European Environment Agency (EEA)
information.png Figure type:
Map

Related content

Based on data

A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.

Used in indicators

Used in publications

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 This report is an indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change and its impacts on ecosystems and society. It also looks at society’s vulnerability to these impacts and at the development of adaptation policies and the underlying knowledge base. This is the fourth ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe’ report, which is published every four years. This edition aims to support the implementation and review process of the 2013 EU Adaptation Strategy, which is foreseen for 2018, and the development of national and transnational adaptation strategies and plans.
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012 This European Environment Agency (EEA) report presents information on past and projected climate change and related impacts in Europe, based on a range of indicators. The report also assesses the vulnerability of society, human health and ecosystems in Europe and identifies those regions in Europe most at risk from climate change. Furthermore, the report discusses the principle sources of uncertainty for the indicators and notes how monitoring and scenario development can improve our understanding of climate change, its impacts and related vulnerabilities.

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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-changes-in-water-limited or scan the QR code.

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