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Overall weather-driven forest fire danger in the present, and under two climate change scenarios

Figure Created 09 Dec 2021 Published 10 Dec 2021 Last modified 10 Dec 2021
1 min read
Climate change assessment of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) aggregated component, computed daily from 1980 to 2100 for five models (see Table 4 of de Rigo et al., 2017 https://doi.org/10.2760/13180 ). The daily FWI is computed for each scenario realisation based on a corresponding model. The entire time series has been estimated (from the end of the control period, the scenario RCP8.5 has been used) and the 90 % quantile of each time period has been computed. The median of the five model ensemble is shown for each period.

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Adapted from Figure 8 of: de Rigo, D., Libertà, G., Houston Durrant, T., Artés Vivancos, T., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2017. Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty. Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 71 pp. ISBN: 978-92-79-77046-3 , https://doi.org/10.2760/13180

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Filed under: forest fires, projections
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