Expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios

Figure Created 17 Oct 2012 Published 20 Nov 2012 Last modified 21 Dec 2016
The figure shows the expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios by 2100. The S550e scenario corresponds to a stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent and a global mean temperature increase of 2°C, the baseline scenario corresponds to a global mean temperature increase of more than 3°C.

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Last upload:
26 Sep 2012
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Methodology:

Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M. und Eickhout, B., 2011, 'Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe', Regional Environmental Change, 11, S.143–150

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EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (http://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: European Environment Agency (EEA).
Owners:
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Processors:
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
Figure type:
Map

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Temporal coverage until 2100

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Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships, our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model (IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases, then both species turnover will increase, and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe, where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region, and in Southern Europe, where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems, arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high, indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests.

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