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The global average concentrations of various greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached the highest levels ever recorded, and concentrations continue to increase. The combustion of fossil fuels from human activities and land-use changes are largely responsible for this increase. The concentration of all GHGs, including cooling aerosols that are relevant in the context of the 2 o C temperature target, reached a value of 399 ppm CO 2 equivalents in 2009. The concentration in 2009 of the six greenhouse gases (GHG) included in the Kyoto Protocol has reached 439 ppm CO 2 equivalent, an increase of 160 ppm (around +58%) compared to pre-industrial levels. The concentration of CO 2 , the most important greenhouse gas, reached a level of 386 ppm by 2009, and further increased to 389 ppm in 2010. This is an increase of approximately 110 ppm (around +39%) compared to pre-industrial levels.
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The total production and consumption of ozone depleting substances in EEA member countries has decreased significantly since the Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987, nowadays it is practically zero. Globally, the implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to a decrease in the atmospheric burden of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) in the lower atmosphere and in the stratosphere. Many ODSs are also potent greenhouse gases. The phasing out of ODS under the Montreal Protocol has reduced global greenhouse gas emissions by an amount 5 to 6 times larger than the UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol target for the first commitment period, 2008-2012.
Global The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase between 1850 and 2010 was 0.81 0 C using combined UK Met Office Hadley centre and University of East Anglia - Climate Research Unit HadCRUT3 dataset compared to the 1850 - 1899 period average temperature and 0.89 0 C using Goddard Institute for Space Studies - GISS dataset compared to the 1880 - 1899 period average temperature. All used temperature records show the 2000s decade (2001 - 2010) was the warmest decade. For the HadCRUT3 and GISS datasets the rate of the global average has increased from around 0.06 0 C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.18 - 0.22 0 C in last decade. The best estimates for projected global warming in this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0 0 C for different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions. The EU global temperature target is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, taking into account all six IPCC scenarios. Europe Europe has warmed more than the global average. The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2001 - 2010) was 1.2 °C above the 1850 - 1899 average, and for the combined land and ocean area 1.0 °C above. Considering the land area, 8 out of the last 13 years were among the warmest years since 1850. High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low - temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent in Europe. The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1850 to 2010 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled. The annual average temperature in Europe is projected to rise in this century with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over Southern Europe in summer. High temperature events across Europe including temperature extremes such as heat waves are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. According to the projections, the most affected European regions are going to be the Iberian and the Apennine Peninsula and south - eastern Europe.
In the EEA member countries, emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from transport (excluding international air and maritime transport) increased by 25 % between 1990 and 2008. The EU-15 Member States make up 80 % of the total EEA area transport emissions and they increased by 20 % in the same period. In the 3 EFTA countries the emissions increased by 23 % while in the EU-12 Member States the increase was 55 %. In the Candidate Countries (CC-2) the emissions increased by 81 %. For several of the EU-15 Member States and EFTA countries, rapidly rising GHG emissions from transport are a serious concern for meeting the Kyoto target. In the EU Member States, domestic aviation was the fastest growing transport mode, while rail transport was the fastest decreasing one. Also GHG emissions from international aviation and navigation are increasing rapidly, but these emissions are, in accordance with UNFCCC guidelines, not included in the GHG emission totals relevant for the Kyoto targets. In the EU-15 Member States, the transport sector was responsible for 21 % of the total EU-15 GHG emissions in 2008, while in the 12 new EU Member States the transport sector contributed only by 13 % to the total EU-12 GHG emissions.
According to first estimates by EEA for the year 2010, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4 % compared to 2009 (with a margin of error of +/- 0.3 %). This was due to the return to economic growth in many countries and a colder winter leading to an increased heating demand. However, the increase in emissions was contained by a move from coal to natural gas and the sustained strong growth in renewable energy generation. EU‑27 emissions were 15.5 % below the 1990 level. This 2010 increase follows a 7 % drop in 2009 (compared to 2008), largely due to the economic recession and the growth of renewable energy generation. Between 1990 and 2010, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 decreased in all main emitting sectors except in the transport sector, where they increased considerably. In the EU-15, CO 2 emissions from public electricity and heat production also increased. In the EU-15, estimated 2010 GHG emissions increased by 2.3 % (+/– 0.7) compared to 2009. This implies that EU‑15 greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 10.6 % below the 1990 level in 2010 (1) or 10.7 % below the base-year level. The European Union remains well on track to achieve its Kyoto Protocol target (an 8% reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions compared to base-year level, to be achieved during the period from 2008 to 2012). 2010 emissions of all EU-12 Member States that have a Kyoto target were well below their Kyoto target, except in Slovenia. A detailed assessment of progress towards Kyoto targets and 2020 targets in Europe is provided in EEA's 2011 report on Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections .
Projections from EU Member States for 2010 indicate that the EU-15 will meet its Kyoto target by a large margin through further implementation of existing and additional measures, and use of carbon sinks and of Kyoto mechanisms. If all the projected reductions were achieved, the EU-15 could reach a level of emissions 11.3 % lower than base-year emissions, therefore overachieving its - 8 % Kyoto target by 3.3 percentage points. Furthermore, the EU emission trading scheme will also bring important further reductions, which are not yet fully accounted for by Member States in their projections. The EU-27 does not have a Kyoto target. Twelve EU-15 Member States project they will achieve their individual targets. All ten new Member States with a target expect to meet their target (Cyprus and Malta do not have a Kyoto target). Croatia, Iceland and Norway project that they will meet their targets, but not Switzerland. Turkey had not ratified the Kyoto Protocol as of June 2008 and thus had no Kyoto target.
During the last century the water temperature of some European rivers and lakes increased by 1-3 o C, mainly as a result of air temperature increase, but also locally due to increased inputs of heated cooling water from power plants. In line with the projected increases in air temperature, lake surface water temperatures may be around 2 o C higher by 2070.
Water retention capacity and soil moisture content will be affected by rising temperatures and by a decline in soil organic matter due to both climate change and land-management changes. Projections (for 2071-2100) show a general reduction in summer soil moisture over most of Europe, significant reductions in the Mediterranean region, and increases in the north-eastern part of Europe. Maintaining water retention capacity is important to reducing the impacts of intense rainfall and droughts, which are projected to become more frequent and severe.
Between 1975 and 2006 clear trends, both positive and negative, were evident in water requirement across Europe, with marked spatial variability. A significant increase in water demand (50-70 %) occurred mainly in Mediterranean areas; large decreases were recorded mainly in northern and central European regions. Current trends and future scenarios depict an increase in the demand for water in agriculture, potentially increasing competition for water between sectors and uses.
There has been a linear increase in reported cases of some food-borne diseases for each degree increase in weekly or monthly temperature over a certain location-specific threshold (medium confidence). Several thousand cases of salmonella are expected in future years, particularly in countries where food safety standards are poor. Changing frequency and intensity of precipitation events (and temperature) from climate change may result in outbreaks of water-borne diseases (high confidence) and could mobilise pathogens. In the Mediterranean additional salmonella problems from bathing water quality are projected, which would require proper monitoring and surveillance.
The tiger mosquito, a transmitter of a number of viruses, has extended its range in Europe substantially over the past 15 years and is projected to extend even further. There is a risk of additional outbreaks of Chikungunya and a potential for localised dengue to re-appear. Ticks and the associated Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis are moving into higher altitudes and latitudes. Changes in the geographical distribution of the sandfly vector are occurring in several European countries (high confidence) and there is a risk of human Leishmania cases further north. Projected temperature increases in the United Kingdom could increase the risk of local malaria transmission by 8 to 15 %; in Portugal a significant increase in the number of days suitable for the survival of malaria vectors is projected. However, the risk of localised malaria transmission is low.
There is evidence that the flowering and maturity of several species in Europe now occurs two or three weeks earlier than in the past. The shortening of the phenological phases is expected to continue if temperatures continue to increase.
There has been considerable variation, but no clear long term trend in storminess in Europe. Storm frequency was relatively high during the late 19th and early 20th century; then decreased in central and northern Europe. The recent high level is similar to the late 19th century level of storminess. Despite the variation in storminess, water levels along most vulnerable European coastlines of the North Sea and Mediterranean Sea have shown no significant storm-related variation. Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move pole-wards, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the past half-century. Climate models indicate a slight decrease in the number of storms and an increase of the strength of the heaviest storms. Projections to the end of the 21st century show a significant increase in storm surge elevation for the continental North Sea and south-east England.
The stability of ecosystems and, therefore, the services that they provide, will become increasingly affected by climate change due to species-specific responses and, thus, the disruption of established biotic interactions. The changing range of host species has major implications for range expansions of species and places additional pressures on those of conservation importance.
Soil in the EU contains around 71 gigatonnes of organic carbon, nearly 10 % of the carbon accumulated in the atmosphere. An increase in temperature and a reduction in moisture tend to accelerate the decomposition of organic material, leading to a decline in soil organic carbon stocks in Europe and an increase in CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. This could wipe out all the savings that other sectors of the economy are achieving to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Losses of soil organic carbon have already been observed in measurements in various European regions over the past 25 years. The projected changes in the climate during the 21st century will change the contribution of soil to the CO 2 cycle in most areas of the EU. Adapted land-use and management practices could be implemented to counterbalance the climate-induced decline of carbon levels in soil.
An estimated 115 million hectares, 12 % of the total EU land area, are subject to water erosion. The projected changes in the climate during the 21st century, with increased variations in rainfall pattern and intensity, will make soils more susceptible to erosion. The off-site effects of soil erosion will increase with climate change and related changes in rainfall pattern and intensity.
Snow cover in the northern hemisphere has fallen by 1.3 % per decade during the past 40 years. The largest losses are during spring and summer. Model simulations project widespread reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover in Europe over the 21st century. Changes in snow cover affect the Earth's surface reflectivity, river discharge, vegetation, agriculture and animal husbandry, tourism, snow sports, transport and power generation.
Sea surface temperature (SST) in European seas is increasing more rapidly than in the global oceans. The rate of increase is higher in the northern European seas and lower in the Mediterranean Sea. The rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas during the past 25 years has been about 10 times faster than the average rate of increase during more than the past century. The rate of increase observed in the past 25 years is the largest ever measured in any previous 25 year period.
Global average sea level rose by around 0.17 m (1.7 mm/year) during the 20th century. In Europe rates of sea-level rise (SLR) ranged from - 0.3 mm/year to 2.8 mm/year. Recent results from satellites and tide gauges indicate a higher average rate of global SLR in the past 15 years of about 3.1 mm/year. Projections by the IPCC for the end of the 21st century suggest an additional SLR of 0.18 to 0.59 m above the average 1980-2000 level. Based on the latest observations, recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit. SLR can cause flooding, coastal erosion and the loss of flat and low-lying coastal regions. It increases the likelihood of storm surges, enforces landward intrusion of salt water and endangers coastal ecosystems and wetlands. An additional 1.6 million people living in Europe's coastal zones could experience coastal flooding by 2080.
Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades, such as the catastrophic drought associated with the summer 2003 heatwave in central parts of the continent and the 2005 drought in the Iberian Peninsula. Despite the absence of an overall trend in Europe as a whole, climate change has probably increased the frequency and/or severity of droughts in some regions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe as a result of higher temperatures, decreased summer precipitation, and more and longer dry spells. The regions most prone to an increase in drought hazard are southern and south-eastern Europe, but minimum river flows will also decrease significantly in many other parts of the continent, especially in summer.
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