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Indicator Specification
MAIN ADVANTAGES OF THE INDICATOR
Although the indicator provides a simple visual depiction of the impacts of climatic change on bird populations through time, the underlying modelling of bird trends and climatic envelopes for species are complex (although fully documented in a peer-reviewed paper). Climatic warming has led to a small number of bird species increasing in number in Europe, but a much larger number declining in number, so overall climatic change poses a threat to biodiversity, but individual species might still benefit from a warming environment.
The Climatic Impact Indicator (CII) measures the divergence between the population trends of bird species projected to expand their range, and those predicted to shrink their range due to climatic change. The indicator is based on a combination of observed population trends monitored from 122 common bird species in 20 European countries over 26 years, and projected potential shrinkage, or expansion, of range size for each of these species at the end of this century (~2070-2099), derived from climatic envelope models. The ensemble in this case is the average climate envelope forecast based on six differing future scenarios.
weighted index (relative values)
Climate change is having a detectable effect on bird populations at a European scale, including evidence of negative as well as positive effects on their populations.
The number of bird species observed to be negatively impacted by climatic change is three times larger than those observed to be positively affected by climate warming in this set of widespread European land birds.
The Climatic Impact Indicator (CII), which illustrates the impact of climate change on bird populations, has increased strongly in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid climatic warming in Europe.
Potential links between changes in bird populations and ecosystem functioning and resilience are not well understood. It is suggested that increasing climatic effects might alter ecosystem functioning and resilience.
No targets have been specified
No related policy documents have been specified
The CII is calculated in two steps. First, we divided the 122 bird species into those for which the ensemble climatic envelope model projection indicated an increase in potential geographical range (30 species) and those with projected decreases in geographical range (92 species). For each of the two groups of species, we then calculated a multi-species population index from population indices for individual species, with the weight of the contribution of each species to the index being based on the modelled projected change in potential range extent. Extreme projections of range increase, or loss, for individual species thus have greater influence on the line. In simple terms, population trends of birds predicted to be strongly affected by climatic change in our models (either negatively or positively) strongly influence the direction of the lines shown in the sub-indicator figures. For example, the Sardinian Warbler, Subalpine Warbler, Bee-eater and Cirl Bunting are increasing strongly and are projected to do so. The snipe Meadow Pipit, Brambling and Willow Tit are declining strongly and are projected to do so.
In the second step, the CII itself is calculated in a given year as the ratio of the index for those species projected to increase in potential range (30 species) to the index of those species projected to decrease in geographical range (92 species). The two lines have equal weighting in the indicator.
The CII shows conformity between observed population trends and projections of how each species' population should respond to climatic warmingThe CII increases when population trends go in the direction predicted by the modelsThe CII decreases when population trends go in the opposite direction predicted by the models.
In the analysis, we also looked at the influence of the habitat choice of the birds, their migratory behaviour and their body mass (as a proxy for life history characteristics) in predicting bird trends and in potentially influencing the CII. Although population trends covary with these factors (e.g. farmland birds and long-distance migrants have declined strongly) these correlations do not confound the relationship between trends and the climate projections, nor do they confound the CII.
The methodology developed here is equally applicable to any other species group where equivalent information is available. For full methods and discussion, see Gregory et al. (2009) An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations (In press).
The indicator is based on the combination of two data sets:
N/A
No methodology references available.
No uncertainty has been specified
No uncertainty has been specified
MAIN DISADVANTAGES OF THE INDICATOR
Although the indicator provides a simple visual depiction of the impacts of climatic change on bird populations through time, the underlying modelling of bird trends and climatic envelopes for species are complex (although fully documented in a peer-reviewed paper). Climatic warming has led to a small number of bird species increasing in number in Europe, but a much larger number declining in number, so overall climatic change poses a threat to biodiversity, but individual species might still benefit from a warming environment.
ANALYSIS OF OPTIONS
Climate change is having a detectable effect on biodiversity at a European scale, including evidence of negative as well as positive effects on their populations.
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
No resource needs have been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/impact-of-climate-change-on or scan the QR code.
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