This figure shows spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) and its host plants under the BAMBU scenario (climate: A2) for 2050-2080. Green, suitable climate space for the host plants;orange, suitable climate space for the butterfly; red, suitable area for both butterfly and host plants; open circles, currently observed distribution. BAMBU: Business-As-Might-Be-Usual scenario.
Ecological niche models (generalized linear models) for 36 European butterfly species and their larval host plants based on climate and land-use data were developed. The future distributional changes using three integrated global change scenarios for 2080 were projected. Observed and projected mismatches in potential butterfly niche space and the niche space of their hosts were first used to assess changing range limitations due to interacting species and then to investigate the importance of different ecological characteristics.
More information: Schweiger, O., Heikkinen, R. K., Harpke, A., Hickler, T., Klotz, S., Kudrna, O., Kühn, I., Pöyry, J. und Settele, J., 2012, 'Increasing range mismatching of interacting species under global change is related to their ecological characteristics', Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21(1), S.88–99
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