3.1 Emissions of pollutants to air

This briefing assesses past trends around and the outlook for air pollution in the EU-27. The assessment is based on the latest available air pollutant emissions data reported under the National Emission reduction Commitments Directive (NECD). The national air pollutant emission inventories reported annually under the NECD provide data from 2005 to 2023. Projections reported under the same directive and modelling within the Fourth Clean Air Outlook provide an outlook for 2030 and 2050.

Key policies

A package of European Green Deal initiatives under the EU action plan: towards zero pollution for air, water and soil (ZPAP) is the main strategy to reduce pollution across the EU by 2050. The National Emission Reduction Commitments Directive (NECD) transposes the Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and sets national commitments to reduce regulated air pollutant emissions (NO_x, NH₃, SO₂, NMVOCs and PM_2.5). Furthermore, the Directive sets stricter national emission reduction commitments from 2030 onwards.

Past trends (10-15 years)

Improving trends/developments dominate

All pollutant emissions reported under NECD have shown downward trends since 2005. The largest emission reductions for pollutants have been for SO₂ (85%), followed by NO_X (53%), NMVOCs (35%), PM_2.5 (38%) and NH₃ (17%). The main reductions in SO₂ emissions were due to shifting to fuels with lower sulphur content, retrofitting industrial plants with desulphurisation installations and switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. Reductions in NO_x, PM_2.5 and NMVOCs emissions from the road transport sector were primarily achieved through the implementation of vehicle exhaust emission controls to comply with the Euro emission standards. In the energy sector, NO_x and PM_2.5 emission reductions were mainly due to combustion technology modification, flue gas abatement techniques and switching from coal to gas. Agricultural NH₃ emissions decreased mainly due to better manure management and more efficient fertiliser application to soils.

Outlook (10-15 years)

Trends/developments expected to show a mixed picture

Despite emission declines since 2005, all but two Member States must further reduce all main pollutants to meet their reduction commitments for 2030. The projections for SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5, and NMVOCs emissions show a steady downward trend. The challenge will be to reduce NH₃ emissions, especially in the agriculture sector. The Fourth Clean Air Outlook report recommends that further measures are implemented in the agriculture sector to reduce NH₃ emissions. Efforts to reduce SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions should focus on measures in the manufacturing and extractive industry, and energy supply sectors as these two sectors contribute most to emissions. Efforts to reduce NO_x emissions should focus on the road transport sector while the solvent use sector should be the focus for reducing NMVOCs emissions.

Prospects of meeting policy targets 2030/2050

2030 Partially on track to meet targets/highly uncertain

The Fourth Clean Air Outlook modelling shows that only four Member States are on track to achieve all their emission reduction commitments in 2030. Most notably, 21 Member States must take significant additional action to reduce their NH₃ emissions by promoting good agricultural practices to achieve the reduction commitments for this pollutant.

2050 Largely on track to meet targets

Overall, the EU is on track to meet the health-related target of the ZPAP in 2050, based on the Fourth Clean Air Outlook. For this to be achievable, it is important to implement existing legislation in full. Further reductions of NH₃ emissions are necessary to reach the ZPAP objectives for ecosystems.

Robustness

Air pollutant emissions are estimated by the Member States using the methodologies described in the EMEP/EEA Technical Guidebook. This approach ensures transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness and accuracy of reported air emission data across EU Member States. In addition, air pollutant emission data submitted by Member States under the NECD are reviewed in accordance with Article 10(3) of this Directive. The purpose of the NECD inventory reviews is to verify Member States' emission inventory accuracy and reliability.

Charts/maps

Figure 1. Emission trends for regulated pollutants