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Indicator Specification
Definition: The indicator represents number of species gained and lost as a result of climate change.
Model used: EUROMOVE
Ownership: European Environment Agency
Temporal coverage: 2100
Geographical coverage: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Cyprus, Czech republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Lichtenshtain, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Swetzerland, Slovakia, Slovenia, United Kingdom
Number of species
There is a strong need for an indicator to show the status of biodiversity in Europe. Such an indicator should be closely linked to the following policy objectives expressed at both European and global level.
At the global level, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), and in particular the Strategic Plan for the Convention commits the Parties to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level. This target was endorsed in 2002 by two major global environmental meetings; firstly the Ministerial Declaration at COP6 to the CBD and secondly the World Summit on Sustainable Development in its Plan of Implementation (2002).
On the Pan-European level, the Kiev resolution on Biodiversity was adopted during the fifth ministerial conference on Environment for Europe in 2003. It reinforces the objective to halt the loss of biodiversity at all levels by the year 2010.
At European level, the Council of the European Union adopted the European Strategy for Sustainable Development in 2001. One of the objectives of the Strategy was "to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010". In June 2004, the EU Environment Council welcomed the set of biodiversity indicators referred to in the "Message from Malahide" and based on the first set of indicators adopted under the Convention on biological diversity earlier that year.
Other political instruments in Europe are also focusing on biodiversity. These include the 6th Environmental Action Programme and the European Community Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan.
Development and implementation of national strategies and plans concerning bidoversity is the object for the governments of EECCA region.
Links to other related policies
Calculations of the indicator are based on the Euromove model.
Euromove is a species-based model using logistic regression equations to calculate occurence probabilities for almost 1400 European vascular plant species. The equations are based on six climatic variables from IMAGE (including climatic temperature data) and species data from the Atlas Flora Europaeae (AFE) (Jalas and Suominen 1989; Ascroft 1994). In the Euromove model (Bakkenes et al., 2002) a threshold probability value for each species have been determined to transform calculated probabilities into absent-present states.
The model is easy to use and makes use of all available digital information on plant species in Europe. The indicator recognizes climate change as the major determining factor of plant distribution. The indicator gives insight in the potential loss of plant biodiversity due to climate change.
The GLOBIO3 model has been developed to assess human-induced changes in biodiversity, in the past, present and future at regional and global scales. The model is built on simple cause-effect relationships between environmental drivers and biodiversity impacts, based on state-of-the-art knowledge. The mean abundance of original species relative to their abundance in undisturbed ecosystems (MSA) is used as the indicator for biodiversity. Changes in drivers are derived from the IMAGE 2.4 model. Drivers considered are land-cover change, land-use intensity, fragmentation, climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and infrastructure development. GLOBIO3 addresses (i) the impacts of environmental drivers on MSA and their relative importance; (ii) expected trends under various future scenarios; and, (iii) the likely effects of various policy response options. GLOBIO3 has been used successfully in several integrated regional and global assessments.
Three different global-scale policy options have been evaluated, on their potential to reduce MSA loss. These options are: climate-change mitigation through expanded use of bio-energy, an increase in plantation forestry, and an increase in protected areas. We conclude that MSA loss is likely to continue during the coming decades. Plantation forestry may help to reduce the rate of loss, whereas climate-change mitigation through the extensive use of bioenergy crops will, in fact, increase this rate of loss. The protection of 20% of all large ecosystems leads to a small reduction in the rate of loss, provided that protection is effective and that currently degraded protected areas are restored.
For more information see: http://arch.rivm.nl/ieweb/ieweb/index.html?tools/euromove.html
n/a
No methodology references available.
Factors that affect biodiversity, such as land use change, habitat loss, and fragmentation are not considered. For this reason, the results may differ from the actual future distribution. It can be proposed additional modules to complete prediction on these and other aspects. The use of the model and the indicator in a policy context is therefore limited, although the methodology has potential application to predict responses of keystone species.
Data quality is not consistently robust across Europe, particularly in Russia, and to a lesser extent in Spain and southern Italy.
No uncertainty has been specified
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/change-in-species-diversity-as or scan the QR code.
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