Estimated effects of increased RES consumption since 2005 on fossil fuels and GHG emissions

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Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion and use of energy from renewable sources commits the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020 and a 10 % share of renewable energy in transport energy consumption by the same year. Article 22 of the directive requires Member States to report on national progress in the promotion and use of energy from renewable sources, biennially, starting with 31 December 2011. It specifies that the national reports shall contain, inter alia, the estimated net GHG emission savings due to the use of energy from renewable sources. Information regarding the specific methodologies used by the countries for producing the above estimates of net GHG emission savings is not always available. To that end, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM) produce each year a consistent set of estimated co-benefits, at the Member State and EU level, concerning the impact on fossil fuels and GHG emissions due to the increase in RES consumption since 2005. For 2016, these estimated co-benefits are based on the EEA 2016 RES share proxies and the EEA 2016 proxies on primary and final energy consumption.

European data

EEA estimated effects of RES consumption increase since 2005 on fossil fuels (ktoe)
EEA estimated effects of RES consumption increase since 2005 on GHG emissions (MtCO2)
EEA estimated effects of RES consumption increase since 2005 on fossil fuels and GHG emissions, by renewable energy technology (ktoe and MtCO2)

Metadata

Relation:
Parent data set:  Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2016 (EEA 2016 proxies on primary and final energy consumption)
Parent data set:  Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2016 (EEA 2016 RES share proxies)
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information.png Rights:
EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (https://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: Directorate-General for Environment (DG ENV).
information.png Methodology:

The method assumes that renewable energy (electricity, heating and cooling, and transport) replaces at the national level a set of initial energy carriers (electricity, heating and cooling, and transport fuels) that would otherwise be supplied by other energy sources. It is important to note that, because the base year of the analysis is 2005, the development of renewable energy from only that point in time is considered.

Gross impacts on fossil fuel use and GHG emissions are calculated on an annual basis, by comparing the actual growth in renewable energy since 2005 with a counter-factual scenario in which this growth would come from non-renewable energy sources. Effectively, this assumes that the growth in renewable energy since 2005 has substituted an equivalent amount of energy that would have been supplied by a country-specific mix of conventional sources.

A generation-weighted average emission factor was chosen to calculate reference emission factors. Values for the gross final consumption of RES, including the 2016 EEA estimated values, are in accordance with the methodology under Directive 2009/28/EC. Although the EEA 2016 RES proxies formed the basis of a specific EEA country consultation, these values are not a substitute for data that countries officially report to Eurostat and to the European commission in the context of their legal obligations. The term ‘gross avoided fossil fuels and GHG emissions’ illustrates the theoretical character of the effects estimated in this way, as these contributions do not necessarily represent ‘net fossil fuel and GHG reductions per se’ or are based on life-cycle assessment or full carbon accounting. Taking full life-cycle emissions into account could lead to substantially different results.

Full details about the method, its scope and assumptions are provided in Chapter 3 of the Renewable energy in Europe – Approximated recent growth and knock-on effects 2015 EEA report. 

information.png Units:

Kilotonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe).
Million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2).

information.png Data sources

Dataset based on EEA estimates and Member States consultation.

information.png Owners:
Directorate-General for Environment (DG ENV)
information.png Processors:
European Topic Centre on Air pollution and Climate change mitigation (ETC/ACM)

Additional information

This concerns the most recent set of EEA estimates on the amounts of gross avoided fossil fuels and GHG emissions, per Member State and for the EU as a whole, due to the increase in gross final RES consumption since 2005. The estimates are presented as annual data starting with 2005. The 2016 estimates are drawing on the EEA 2016 RES share proxies and the EEA 2016 proxies on primary and final energy consumption.

These EEA estimated effects are not to be confused with information reported by Member States biennially as part of their renewable energy progress reports under Directive 2009/28/EC.

 

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Based on external data

Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2016 (EEA 2016 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) establishes a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s 2020 20 % headline target on energy efficiency and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets, which can be based on primary or final energy consumption, primary or final energy savings, or energy intensity. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. The current data set concerns the EEA 2016 proxies on primary and final energy consumption.
Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2016 (EEA 2016 RES share proxies) Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion and use of energy from renewable sources commits the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020 and a 10 % share of renewable energy in transport energy consumption by the same year. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2016 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated 2016 RES shares was 31 July 2017.

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