Estimated effects of increased RES consumption since 2005 on fossil fuels and GHG emissions

The method assumes that renewable energy (electricity, heating and cooling, and transport) replaces at the national level a set of initial energy carriers (electricity, heating and cooling, and transport fuels) that would otherwise be supplied by other energy sources. It is important to note that, because the base year of the analysis is 2005, the development of renewable energy from only that point in time is considered.

Gross impacts on fossil fuel use and GHG emissions are calculated on an annual basis, by comparing the actual growth in renewable energy since 2005 with a counter-factual scenario in which this growth would come from non-renewable energy sources. Effectively, this assumes that the growth in renewable energy since 2005 has substituted an equivalent amount of energy that would have been supplied by a country-specific mix of conventional sources.

A generation-weighted average emission factor was chosen to calculate reference emission factors. Values for the gross final consumption of RES, including the 2016 EEA estimated values, are in accordance with the methodology under Directive 2009/28/EC. Although the EEA 2016 RES proxies formed the basis of a specific EEA country consultation, these values are not a substitute for data that countries officially report to Eurostat and to the European commission in the context of their legal obligations. The term ‘gross avoided fossil fuels and GHG emissions’ illustrates the theoretical character of the effects estimated in this way, as these contributions do not necessarily represent ‘net fossil fuel and GHG reductions per se’ or are based on life-cycle assessment or full carbon accounting. Taking full life-cycle emissions into account could lead to substantially different results.

Full details about the method, its scope and assumptions are provided in Chapter 3 of the Renewable energy in Europe – Approximated recent growth and knock-on effects 2015 EEA report. 

Kilotonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe).
Million tonnes of CO₂ (MtCO₂).

Dataset based on EEA estimates and Member States consultation.