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Indicator Assessment
Past trends
Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northward movement of warmer-water plankton in the North-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder-water plankton to the north. This northerly movement is about 10 o latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years (a mean poleward movement of between 200 and 250 km per decade), and there appears to have been an acceleration since 2000 [i]. Recently, a Norwegian study showed even faster rates of northward movement between 1997 and 2010. Out of about 1 600 benthic marine species found in coastal waters of southern Norway, 565 species had expanded their distribution northwards along the coast, at rates of 500–800 km per decade [ii]. These rates are much faster than any other documented terrestrial study.
Projections
Further changes in the distribution of marine species are expected with projected further climate change, but quantitative projections are not available.
[i] Grégory Beaugrand, „Decadal changes in climate and ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas“, Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 56, Nr. 8–10 (April 2009): 656–673, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.022.
[ii] T. Brattegard, Endringer i norsk marin bunnfauna 1997-2010 DN-utredning 8-2011 (Trondheim: Direktoratet for naturforvaltning, 2011), http://www.dirnat.no/content/500042260/Endringer-i-norsk-marin-bunnfauna-1997-2010.
In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.
No targets have been specified.
Data from the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS) on Calanus abundance in the central North Sea 1958–2009 is used for the indicator. The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey is the longest running, large-scale marine biological survey in the world. The CPR is a near-surface (10 m) plankton sampler voluntarily towed each month behind merchant ships on their normal routes of passage. Methods of analysis for, 400 phyto and zooplankton taxa have remained almost unchanged since 1958.
Not applicable
Not applicable
In general, changes related to the physical and chemical marine environment are better documented than biological changes because links between cause and effect are better understood and often time series of observations are longer. The longest available records of plankton are from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) are some 60 years long. It is a sampler that is towed behind many different merchant vessels, along fixed shipping routes. Sampling was started in the North Sea in the 1950s and today a network covering the entire north Atlantic has been established. No other plankton time series of equivalent length and geographical coverage exist for the European regional seas, although many new initiatives investigating species distributions and their changes in Europe’s seas are now emerging.
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/northward-movement-of-marine-species-1/assessment or scan the QR code.
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