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Assessment of global megatrends — an update

Page Last modified 20 Mar 2015, 11:09 AM
Europe is bound to the rest of the world through an enormous number of systems — environmental, economic, social, political and others. Such networks enable complex flows of materials and ideas across the globe, producing uncertain feedbacks and knock-on effects over time. Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe today can affect the climate in distant locations and far into the future. Land management choices on the other side of the world can influence food and energy prices in Europe. Global communication and trade networks fuel innovation — sometimes boosting efficiency, sometimes creating new environmental pressures.

Most of these interactions are intimately linked and set to unfold over decades. All are likely to have important implications for living standards and well-being.

The European environment's status, trends and prospects have always depended in part on events outside its borders. Yet the growing importance of global networks and flows has augmented this interdependence, creating complex challenges for traditional governance systems framed within national or regional territories. To design effective ways to manage the environmental changes ahead, societies and governments need to understand the global drivers at work and their potential implications.

With this challenge in mind, the EEA in 2010 produced its first assessment of emerging global trends as part of its five-yearly flagship report on the European environment's state and outlook (SOER 2010). The exploratory analysis summarised 11 global megatrends (GMTs) grouped into five clusters — social, technological, economic, environmental and governance. Introducing the issues succinctly, it sought to trigger a discussion about how Europe should monitor and assess future changes in order to better inform environmental policymaking.

In preparation for the SOER 2015, the EEA conducted an update of the assessment of global megatrends, analyzing each of these drivers in more detail than previously in terms of their impacts on the European environment and well-being. In 2015, the chapters below will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report.

Contents

Social

1. Diverging global population trends

2. Towards a more urban world

3. Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics

Technological

4. Accelerating technological change

Economic

5. Continued economic growth?

6. An increasingly multipolar world

7. Intensified global competition for resources

Environmental

8. Growing pressures on ecosystems

9. Increasingly severe consequences of climate change

10. Increasing environmental pollution

Political

11. Diversifying approaches to governance

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