Freshwater - Outlook 2020 (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)

Forecast of future change in water quantity and quality

An analysis has confirmed that climate change is already having a negative effect on three aspects water quality:

1. reduced hydrological resources result in less dilution flow in rivers, leading to degraded water quality;
2. higher temperatures reduce the dissolved oxygen content in water bodies; and
3. in response to climate change, water uses, especially those for agriculture, increase the concentrations of pollutants released to waters.

The assessment projected a significant future reduction in the water resources of the country. More frequent drought periods and storm waters with increased intensity are expected. Total national water availability, especially in the catchment area of the Vardar river, is expected to decrease by approximately 18 % by 2100.

The summer season may be extended as a result of temperature rise, and higher water consumption is expected in tourist destinations that will require new water supply resources, as well as proper sewage treatment plants for households and industry. Increased peak periods and heat waves could also have a negative influence on water quality.

Climate change manifested through extreme events like high temperatures and droughts is expected to increase demand for drinking water. The projected  increase in drinking water demand for Skopje by 2100  could be  around 30 %.

Water demand up to the end of the 21st century will depend not only on climate change but also on the country’s socioeconomic development. There is no available national study of long-term expectations of socioeconomic development for 2050-2100.

Climate change is expected to increase demand for irrigation water. Since the major irrigation systems are located in the most vulnerable regions of the country, these will be directly affected by the reduced water availability.