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Indicator Assessment
Total EU-27 energy requirements continue to increase up to 2030. In 2030 primary energy consumption is 11% higher than in 2005. Oil remains the most important fuel, while renewables and natural gas are projected to be the only energy sources that increase their market shares.
Structure of Primary Energy Consumption in EU15 in 1990-2005, and projected structure to 2030
Note: N/A
DG_TREN (NM12 and EU15): Structure of Primary Energy Consumption in EU15, Annex 2
Structure of Primary Energy Consumption in EU27 in 1990-2005, and projected structure to 2030
Structure of Primary Energy Consumption in NM 12 in 1990-2005, and projected structure to 2030
Note: N/A
DG_TREN (NM12 and EU15): Structure of Primary Energy Consumption in EU15, Annex 2
Total EU-27 energy requirements continue to increase up to 2030. In 2030 primary energy consumption is 11% higher than in 2005. The energy growth rates become smaller over time with consumption almost stabilising post 2020 reflecting lower economic growth and stagnating population in the last decade of the projection period. The 11% increase in the primary energy consumption by 2030 is much lower than the GDP growth over the same period (71%).
The primary energy consumption increase of some 200 Mtoe between 2005 and 2030 will be overwhelmingly met by renewables and natural gas, which are the only energy sources that increase their market shares. Oil remains the most important fuel, although its consumption in 2030 exceeds the current level by only 6%. Renewables increase most, growing by over 90% from today to 2030. In absolute terms they increase by 115 Mtoe from 2005 to 2030 accounting for nearly 60% of the increase of energy demand. RES use increases most in power generation, followed by transport and heating and cooling. Natural gas demand is expected to expand considerably by 71 Mtoe up to 2030, after the substantial increase already seen up to now. Solid fuels are projected to exceed their current level by 5% in 2030, following high oil and gas prices and the nuclear phase-out in certain Member-States. As a result of political decisions on nuclear phase-out in certain old Member-States and the closure of plants with safety concerns in some new Member-States, nuclear energy is 20% smaller in 2030 than it was in 2005. Although nuclear generation has been rising in recent years, after 2010 the agreed policies on nuclear and the replacement cycles for older plants lead to more nuclear plant closure than there will be new investment in nuclear. Carbon intensity (ratio of CO2 emission to energy consumption) continues to improve up to 2010. However, this improvement comes to a halt after 2010 as nuclear plants are progressively retired and largely replaced by coal without renewables making sufficient progress.
The share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption falls only marginally by 2030, reaching 78% (compared with 79% in 2005). Solid fuels and oil lose roughly 1 percentage point each, while the gas share increases by 1 percentage point. The decrease of the oil and solid fuels share is particularly noticeable in the New Members 12. The renewables share in primary energy consumption rises throughout the projection period from less than 7% in 2005 to 8% in 2010, 10% in 2020 and 12% in 2030. Nevertheless, under baseline conditions the EU target on renewables for 2010 will not be achieved. The renewables share in final energy demand rises by 4 percentage points between 2005 and 2020 reaching 12.7% in 2020. Achieving the 20% renewables target for 2020 will require a substantial additional effort compared with baseline developments, which includes only those measures implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006.
The share of nuclear in total energy consumption drops slightly, from 14% in 2005 to 13% in 2010 and to only 10% by 2030. In total the share of indigenous and carbon free energy sources rises marginally, from 21% in 2005 to 22% in 2030.
Definition: Total energy consumption is made up of production plus imports, minus exports, minus international marine bunkers plus/minus stock changes. It is also called Total primary energy supply or Gross inland energy consumption and represents the quantity of all energy necessary to satisfy inland consumption.
Model used: PRIMES
Ownership: European Environment Agency
Temporal coverage: 1990 - 2030
Geographical coverage: EU 15 : Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom; EU 12: Bulgaria Cyprus, Czech republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
The indicator is provided in relative (Mtoe) and absolute ways (share in percentage).
Total Energy consumption is measured in million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). Therefore, the share of each fuel in total energy consumption is measured in absolute value, but presented in the form of a percentage. The sum of all fuel-shares equals 100 %.
The major documents that relate to trends of the total energy consumption (supply) at the global level were developed and presented during the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg (WSSD,2002) in Agenda 21. WSSD, 2002 aims to achieve a sustainable energy future, including diversified energy sources using cleaner technologies. Moreover, there is a number of sub-negotiations and declarations concerning more sustainable ratio in balance between a global energy supply and consumption of different energy types.
The recent pan-european policies concerning different aspects of total energy consumption have been developed under different intenational fora.
The Committee on Sustainable Energy seeks to reform energy prices and subsidies and ways how to carry out it to meet more sustainable energy supply, production and consumption in the region (UNECE Guidelines).
Kiev Declaration "Environment for Europe" (2003) aims at supporting further efforts to promote renewable energy supply to meet environmental objectives.
Total energy consumption disaggregated by fuel type provides an indication of the extent of environmental pressure caused (or at risk of being caused) by energy production and consumption. The relative shares of fossil fuels, nuclear power and renewable energies together with the total amount of energy consumption are valuable in determining the overall environmental burden of energy consumption in the EU.
Trends in the share of these fuels will be one of the major determinants of whether the EU meets its target of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions as agreed in 1997 under the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The overall Kyoto target for the pre-2004 EU-15 Member States requires a 8% reduction by 2008-2012 from baseyear levels (1990 for most greenhouse gases), while most new Member States have individual targets under the Kyoto Protocol.
On 23 January 2008 the European Commission adopted the 'Climate Action and Renewable Energy' package. The Package sets a number of targets for EU member states with the ambition to achieve the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times including: GHG reduction of 20% compared to 1990 by 2020. (under a satisfactory global climate agreement this could be scaled up to a 30% reduction); 20% reduction in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency, an increase in renewable energy's share to 20% and a 10% share for sustainably produced biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport. With these goals in mind, each Member State will by June 30th 2010 submit a National Renewable Energy Action Plan to the Commission.
The main policy illustrating regional objectives of EECCA countries is EECCA Environmental Strategy. One of the main goals is "to contribute to improving environmental conditions and to implement the WSSD Implementation Plan in EECCA countries" regarding energy issues as well as Kiev Declaration's energy performance tasks.
Global level
Pan-European level
EU level
EECCA
The indicator of the Total energy consumption (gross inland consumption) is produced using the PRIMES model. The model covers the horizon from 1990 to 2030 with 5 years periods. A fundamental assumption in PRIMES is that producers and consumers both respond to changes in prices.
PRIMES is a partial equilibrium model for the European Union energy system developed by, and maintained at, The National Technical University of Athens, E3M-Laboratory. The most recent version of the model used in the calculations covers each of the EU Member States, EU candidate countries and Neighbouring countries, uses Eurostat as the main data source, and is updated with 2000 as the base year. The PRIMES model is the result of collaborative research under a series of projects supported by the Joule programme of the Directorate General for Research of the European Commission.
The model determines the equilibrium by finding the prices of each energy form such that the quantity producers find best to supply match the quantity consumers wish to use. The equilibrium is static (within each time period) but repeated in a time-forward path, under dynamic relationships. The model is behavioural but also represents in an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement technologies. It reflects considerations about market economics, industry structure, energy/environmental policies and regulation. These are conceived so as to influence the market behaviour of energy system agents. The modular structure of PRIMES reflects a distribution of decision-making among agents that decide individually about their supply, demand, combined supply and demand, and prices. Then the market-integrating part of PRIMES simulates market clearing. PRIMES is a general purpose model. It conceived for forecasting, scenario construction and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium to long-term horizon. It is modular and allows either for a unified model use or for partial use of modules to support specific energy studies.
For more information see: http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/manuals/PRIMESld.pdf; http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/ and http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/DEFAULT.HTM
No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.
No uncertainty has been specified
No uncertainty has been specified
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/total-energy-consumption-outlook-from-eea/total-energy-consumption-outlook-from-1 or scan the QR code.
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