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Indicator Assessment
Total water abstraction in Europe is expected to decrease by more than 10 % between 2000 and 2030 with pronounced decreases in Western Europe.
Climate change is expected to reduce water availability and increase irrigation withdrawals in Mediterranean river basins. Under mid-range assumptions on temperature and precipitation changes, water availability is expected to decline in southern and south-eastern Europe (by 10 % or more in some river basins by 2030).
The sectoral profile of water abstraction is expected to change: withdrawals for the electricity sector are projected to decrease dramatically over the next 30 years as a result of continuing substitution of once-through cooling by less water-intensive cooling tower systems. Water use in the manufacturing sector may grow significantly. Agricultureis expected to remain the largest water user in the Mediterranen countries, with more irrigation and warmer and drier growing seasons resulting from climate change.
Assessment includes baseline and Low greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Europe as a whole and within range of regions.
The changes in river-flow and groundwater recharge are expected to vary between regions, and to depend critically on the degree and types of climate change.
The following developments are expected for water availability forecasts
While large decreases are expected in water withdrawals for cooling purposes in electricity production across Europe, there is considerable variation in the water use outlook of different regions and sectors (i.e. households and domestic purposes, manufacturing, cooling for electricity production, and agriculture and irrigation).
The following developments are expected for water use forecasts:
Regional features for fresh water use trends (water withdrawal forecasts) are expected the following:
Northern Europe:
Southern Europe:
New EU Member States:
A major uncertainty in the new EU Member States is future domestic water use.
EU candidate countries:
Water stress trends are expected:
Low greenhouse gas emission scenario
Under the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario, reductions in water withdrawal would be even more pronounced (by up to 10%), as fossil fuel power is replaced by renewable energy sources that are not cooling-intensive. However, water consumed (the part of the withdrawal that is not returned to the river) is projected to increase somewhat under both the baseline and the low emissions scenario, since evaporation is about twice as high in newer tower-cooling plants than in once-through cooling systems.
Definition: The water exploitation index (WEI) is the annual total abstraction of freshwater divided by the annual total renewable freshwater resource, expressed in percentage terms. This indicator can be computed at the country level or, preferably, by river basin. A region is characterized as being under water stress, if it the water exploitation index exceeds 20%, and under severe water stress if it exceeds 40%. This indicator combines data on water availability and water withdrawals, and has thus also been referred to as withdrawals-to-availability index.
Alternatively, the underlying data can be used (i.e. data on water availability and water withdrawals for domestic use, industrial use, an agricultural use, respectively) to indicate seperately:
The water availability index is defined as the average freshwater resources available per person in a country or river basins. Regions can be labelled as water scarce if this value drops below 1000 m3 per person - however as the indicator uses population as a proxy for water uses it is less accurate.
Changes in annual water availability indicates the change in freshwater resources in a country or river basin over a given time period, primarily due to changes in upstream water use or climate change.
Changes in annual water abstraction indicates the change in water use in a country or river basin over a given time period. Changes can be presented separately for different socio-economic activities, i.e. water for domestic use, for use in manufacturing and electricity production, and for agricultural purposes.
Model used: WaterGAP
Ownership: European Environment Agency
Temporal coverage: 2000 - 2030
Geographical coverage: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Cyprus, Czech republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Lichtenshtain, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Swetzerland, Slovakia, Slovenia, United Kingdom
The indicator can be used to monitor a wide range of policies at global, regional and national levels. It provides, for example, the information on efficiency of water-use management plans.
Global policy context
At the global level problems of fresh water use and water stress are becoming ones of the most actual. The central aims were emphasized within UN "Millennium Development Goals" (7th goal to ensure environmental sustainability) and include reduction of proportion people without access to safe drinking water.
Pan-European policy context
In 2002 the EU launched a Water Initiative (EUWI) designed to contribute to the achievements of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and World Summit for Sustainable Development targets for drinking water and sanitation, within the context of an integrated approach to water resources management. The EUWI covers EU region as well as EECCA regions.
The UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes was signed by 34 UNECE countries and the European Community. The Convention establishes main principles and rules for its Parties to develop and promote coordinated measures of sustainable use of water and related resources of transboundary rivers and international lakes, as well as of institutional mechanisms to be created for it. The UNECE Convention on the protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes is an important instrument for the protection of freshwater resources and the development of transboundary water cooperation.
EU policy context
Achieving the objective of the EU's Sixth Environment Action Programme (2001-2010), to ensure that rates of extraction from water resources are sustainable over the long term, requires monitoring of the efficiency of water use in different economic sectors at the national, regional and local level. The WEI is part of the set of water indicators of several international organisations such as UNEP, OECD, EUROSTAT and the Mediterranean Blue Plan. There is an international consensus about the use of this indicator.
The indicator describes how the total water abstractions put pressure on water resources identifying those countries having high abstractions in relation to their resources and therefore prone to suffer water stress. The changes in WEI help to analyse how the changes in abstractions impact on the freshwater resources by adding pressure to them or by making them more sustainable.
There is a number of agreements relate to European river water use management, for example of the oldest one is the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR). (Basel on July 11, 1950).
EECCA policy context
EECCA Environmental Strategy promotes sustainable water use based on long-term projection of available water resources. It sets goals to improve quality of waters (ecological, chemical) in national level as well in regional through the developed management of municipal water supply and sanitations. Also, the EECCA environment strategy has actions on development and implementation of integrated water management programmes based on river basin principles.
Some sub-regional policies aim to stimulate development and implementation of action plans to improve water resource management systems.
A regional Cooperation strategy to promote the rational use and conservation of water resources in Central Asia focus on the sustainable use of freshwater in the Aral Sea Water Basin. The strategy helps to support achievability of targets set in the Aral Sea Basin Water Vision 2025 developed with support from UNESCO (SABAS vision). The document provides recommendations for water distribution, particularly within agriculture sector, as well as an accent on improving hydro electricity technologies with 'less losses of water' over the 2025 horizon.
Number of transboundary rivers negotiations focus on sustain river's water use and are implemented for such river basins as Neman (Nemanus) and Western Dvina (Daugava); also for Dniester between Ukraine and Moldova.
UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes
Aral Sea Vision Cooperation Strategy
UN 'Millennium Development Goals"
IUCN Water and Nature Initiative
River Basin Commissions for Daugava and Nemunas
Transboundary Cooperation and Sustainable Management of the Dniestr River
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR). (Basel on July 11, 1950)
Global level:
There is no specific targets, however, some of them could influence indirectly on the indicator's issues in particular, share of domestic water withdrawal:
Pan-European level:
There is no qualitative targets. However several document put some action oriented targets, for instance, EU Water Initiative aims to establish water resource management plans by 2005 and the UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes aims to implement rational and sustain water use within all Europe river basins and lakes for all countries (UNECE).
EU level
There are no specific agreements as to the quantitative targets related to this indicator. The EU requires all countries to promote sustainable water use based on long-term projection of available water resources and to ensure a balance between abstraction and recharge of groundwater. Both the Water Framework Directive and the 6th Environment Action Programme set out the goal to achieve a 'good status' (ecological, chemical and quantitative) for all EU water bodies by 2015. More generally, a warning threshold of at 20 % water exploitation index is widely used to indicate a river basin is water stressed, while sever water stress is indicated by values above 40 %. While this may indicate strong competition for water resources, this may (but does not necessarily have to) trigger frequent water crises, depending on the socio-economic and environmental context within river basins.
EECCA level
Indicators to approximate current Water Stress and/or to give an Outlook on future Water Stress can be calculated using the WaterGAP model (Water: Global Assessment and Prognosis; version 2.1). This is a global model that computes both water availability and water use on the river basin scale.
The model, developed at the University of Kassel, Germany, has two main components: A global hydrology model and a global water use model.
WaterGAP's global hydrology model simulates the characteristic macro-scale behaviour of the terrestrial water cycle to estimate water availability. The model uses both land use and climate data at a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude-longitude grid. Thus it can compute water availability for both past and present temperature and precipitation regimes, as well as using output from climate models for expected future conditions
WaterGAP's global water use model consists of four main sub-models that compute water use for the domestic, manufacturing, energy, and agriculture sectors. For domestic, manufacturing and energy water use most calculations are conducted at a country level, and subsequently distributed across a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude-longitude grid depending on the distribution of population and power plants. For agricultural activities, most computations are conducted on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude-longitude grid, based climatic condition and a world-wide map of irrigated areas.
A drainage direction map then allows the analysis of the water resources situation (including water stress) in all larger river basins. This methodology allows calculating water related indicators both on the country level and on the river basin scale, depending on what is more relevant to address specific policy questions.
A more detailed version of the model exists for EEA member states (except Iceland). Compared with the global version, the European model sees (i) improved country-level calibration for domestic water use, based on better abstration data available in this region; (ii) the use of a data on the geographical explicit location of power station and their cooling water requirements; and (iii) estimates of water use for manufacturing presented seperately for six water intensive industrial activities.
The water use models for domestic, industrial and electricity-related water use have been calibrated against observed past trends on the country level, where reliable data to do so is available. Where this is not the case, parameters derived from regional averages have been used. For more detail see Floerke & Alcamo (2004) and Alcamo et al. (2003).
Floerke and Alcamo (2004) presented a list of some of the main factors determining water use that are particularly uncertain in the European version of WaterGAP. In general, these also hold true for the global version.
Domestic – In most European countries the relationship between future income and water use seems to be well defined. However, in a countries undergoing a major economic transition, it is not possible to define a reliable relationship between income and water use. Another source of uncertainty in estimating future water use in the domestic sector is the future population of water users.
Manufacturing – The water use intensity of different industries is a major uncertainty in most countries. But perhaps more important is the water use of industries that are not now important but will become important over the next 30 years. Key questions are, what will these industries be and how much water will they use?
Electricity Production – Major uncertainties in this sector are the use lifetime of power stations, the percentage of new power stations having tower versus once-through cooling, and their future geographic location. Also important is the uncertainty of future thermal electricity production, and general electricity production trends.
Agriculture – Major unknowns in the agriculture sector are the future extent of irrigated crops, the types of crops to be irrigated, and future climate conditions.
Additional to the above, the uncertainty of the model's estimates on future water availability depend much on the reliability of the land use and climate data used.
See above 'methodological uncertainties'.
Additionally, data on current and past water use need to be considered with reservation due to the lack of common European definitions and procedures for calculating water abstraction and freshwater resources. For some countries in the European, Caucasus and Central Asia no reliable time series on water use by sector exist.
These data uncertainties affect model calibration and are propagated through to the modeled results.
Water stress indicators give an aggregate measure of the pressures that anthropogenic water use places on freshwater resources and related environmental systems. While this a good first categorization of water stress in different countries and river basins, this approach is not likely to be precise in distinguishing the different reasons of water stress due to data and model uncertainty.
It should be stressed, that this water stress indicator is calculated solely based on quantitative information and does not directly address water quality issue. Nevertheless it has been argued that high quantatitive water stress values often also imply some qualitative water stress.
While higher levels of water stress often coincide with higher frequency in droughts, no direct relationship exists. Thus this indicator should only be used with care when addressing assessing droughts (although, with some methodological modifications this can, and has been, done)
Please note that water stress indicators are most useful when presented at the river basin scale, as country values are at risk of missing water stress prone river basins due to averaging. Thus any water stress indicator should always (also) be reported at the river basin level, if possible.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/use-of-freshwater-resources-outlook/use-of-freshwater-resources-outlook or scan the QR code.
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