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Indicator Assessment
Rate of change of the meteorological water balance
Note: This figure shows the rate of change of the ‘water balance’. The map provides an estimate increase (red in map) or decrease (blue in map) of the volume of water required from irrigation assuming that all other factors are unchanged and given that there is an irrigation demand.
Projected change in water availability for irrigation in the Mediterranean region
Note: This figure shows the relative change in water availability for irrigation as projected under the A1B emission scenario by the HIRHAM (DMI) regional climate model for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990. Light yellow areas indicate no change in water availability.
Data provenance info is missing.
Past trends
Consistent observations of water demand for agriculture do not currently exist for Europe but past trends can be estimated on the basis of meteorological data. Figure 1 estimates the change in the water balance, which is the difference between a reference evapotranspiration and the rainfall. This indicator provides only a rough proxy for changes in irrigation demand, because actual irrigation demand is determined by the crops grown, the type of irrigation applied and the local soil conditions. In the period considered (1975–2010), the Iberian Peninsula and Italy experienced an increase in the volume of water required for irrigation, if yields of irrigated crops were to be maintained, whereas parts of south-eastern Europe have experienced a decrease.
Projections
No projections of changes in irrigation demand are available for Europe. Many climate change projections show a consistent increase in the number of dry days in spring and summer in much of southern and central Europe [i]. In some of the severe climate change scenarios the increase in the number of dry days in summer even extends far into northern Europe. The increasing temperatures will increase the evaporative demand, which would be further increased if the higher frequency of dry days leads to lower relative humidity and reduced cloud cover. These effects will only be partly compensated by the reduced crop transpiration under higher CO2 concentrations [ii].
The expected increasing evapotranspiration will put pressure on the use of irrigation in drought-prone areas. Irrigation in Europe is currently concentrated along the Mediterranean, where some countries use more than 80 % of total freshwater abstraction for agricultural purposes [iii]. The increasing demand for irrigation will therefore increase the competition for water, in particular where total water availability declines due to reduced precipitation. Assuming that urban water demands would have preference over agricultural purposes, the proportional reduction of water availability for irrigation in many European basins is larger than the reduction in annual run-off (Figure 2) [iv]. Projections for the Mediterranean region show a considerable decline in water availability, which in some areas makes current irrigation practices impossible in the future.
[i] M. Trnka et al., „Agroclimatic Conditions in Europe Under Climate Change“, Global Change Biology 17, Nr. 7 (Juli 1, 2011): 2298–2318, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02396.x.
[ii] J. E. Olesen et al., „Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models“, Climatic Change 81 (März 17, 2007): 123–143, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1.
[iii] EEA, Water resources across Europe — confronting water scarcity and drought EEA Report (Copenhagen: European Environment Agency, 2009), http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/water-resources-across-europe.
[iv] A. Iglesias et al., „Water and people: Assessing policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean“, in Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean (RACCM) (Springer, 2012), in press.
In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.
No targets have been specified.
The indicator has been produced querying a database, internal to Joint Research Centre (JRC), containing meteo data at 25 kilometers grid level, interpolated from meteo station data. The interpolation is performed taking into account only arable land, potentially suitable for crop growth. The meteo data are provided to JRC in the frame of the MARSOP 3 contract, complying with Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 of 21 January 2008 on the measures to be undertaken by the Commission in 2008-2013 making use of the remote-sensing applications developed within the framework of the common agricultural policy, Official Journal of the European Union, L 25 of 30 January 2008, p. 1.
The relative change in water availability for irrigation was projected under the A1B emission scenario by the HIRHAM (DMI) regional climate model for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990, using the WAPAA model for water availability under policy and climate change scenarios.
Not applicable
No methodology references available.
Not applicable
Effects of climate change on the growing season and crop phenology can be monitored directly, partly through remote sensing (growing season) and partly through monitoring of specific phenological events such as flowering. There is no common monitoring network for crop phenology in Europe, and data on this therefore has to be based on various national recordings, often from agronomic experiments. Crop yield and crop requirements for irrigation are not only affected by climate change, but also by management and a range of socio-economic factors. The effects of climate change on these factors therefore have to be estimated indirectly using agrometeorological indicators and through statistical analyses between climatic variables and factors such as crop yield.
The projections of climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture rely heavily on modelling, and it needs to be recognised that there is often a chain of uncertainty involved in the projections going from emission scenario, through climate modelling, downscaling and to assessments of impacts using an impact model. The extent of all these uncertainties is rarely quantified, even though some studies have assessed uncertainties related to individual components. The crop modelling community has only recently started addressing uncertainties related to modelling impacts of climate change on crop yield and effect of possible adaptation options, and so far only few studies have involved livestock systems. Future studies also need to better incorporate effects of extreme climate events as well as biotic hazards (e.g. pests and diseases).
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/water-requirement-1/assessment or scan the QR code.
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