Waste - Drivers and pressures (United Kingdom)

A complex set of factors influence waste generation and it is difficult to identify clear cut drivers in isolation. For household waste arisings, demographics, the economy and public attitudes and behaviour are key drivers in the UK. For business, commercial imperatives to increase efficiency and value for money also additionally influence waste generation and management. Finally, policy response and cultural dynamics aim to intensify and incentivise resource efficiency and reduce waste. In turn, waste management causes pressure on the natural environment by producing greenhouse gas emissions.

Household waste drivers:

Demographics:

The changing age structure of the population

When assessing behaviour change with regard to household waste in the future, forecast demographic changes imply a marginal increase in the number of households with “poor” waste behaviour (e.g. younger, smaller households), and a marginal decrease in the number of households with “good” waste behaviour (in particular, households that grew up in the first few decades of the 20^th century).

Changes in household size and composition

Also forecast is an increase in household waste arisings, as a consequence of reducing household occupancy levels. The underlying issue is that homes with fewer people generate more waste per person than larger families. The main drivers for low occupancy are people getting married and having children later in life, an aging population, increasing divorce rates and the affordability of homes.

Economics:

In terms of household waste specifically, though demographic change influences the final levels of household waste arisings, other macro and behavioural drivers contribute to a greater extent. For example, in forecasts, it is assumed that the majority of waste results from the disposal of products that entered the household through purchases, so the rate of waste growth is affected by changes in economic growth. However, there is some evidence of the decoupling of household expenditure and waste arisings.

Household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) is a measure of traditional consumer spending. Below, HHFCE is calculated as an index from the 1990 period. In the UK, between 1991 and 2007, the HHFCE index increased 63 per cent. Waste not recycled, also calculated as an index, broadly increased between 1990 and 2001 before declining to 2007. The total waste arising index increased 27 per cent between 1990 and 2002 and has since fluctuated around this level between 2002 and 2007.

Behavioural change:

Behavioural change can also impact on the amount of waste generated by households, as an outcome of policy intervention for example. General attitudes towards the environment can determine how much of the final product is wasted, composted or the length of time in which it is disposed of. Also, waste is increasingly seen as part of wider business resource efficiency, bringing economic and commercial as well as environmental benefits. 

Pressures: Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)

Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) produced by the waste management sector have decreased since 1990. Between 1990 and 2008, UK GHG emissions from the waste management sector decreased by 57 per cent, from 52.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e) in 1990 to 22.7MtCO₂e in 2008. This includes emissions from waste sent to landfill, waste-water handling and waste incineration. In 2008, landfilled waste contributed 20.27MtCO₂e, or 89 per cent of emissions from the waste management sector in the UK, waste-water handling contributed 9 per cent and waste incineration contributed 2 per cent.

Figure 10 GHG emissions from the waste management sector, UK, 1990 to 2008

In the UK, GHG emissions from landfill have decreased by 59 per cent between 1990 and 2008, from 49.8MtCO₂e in 1990 to 20.2MtCO₂e in 2008. Emissions from waste water handling have increased by 18 per cent over the same period from 1.7MtCO₂e to 2.1MtCO₂e and emissions from waste incineration have decreased by 2 per cent from 1.4 MtCO₂e 1990 to 0.5 MtCO₂e in 2008.

Further data on UK emissions of GHGs can be found on the DECC website.

Figure 11 GHG emissions from the waste management sector, by management type, UK, 1990 to 2008