Climate change mitigation - Outlook 2020 (Turkey)

Turkey’s First National Communication to UNFCCC in 2007 presents specially commissioned studies on past and predicted climatic trends. Simulations predict a mean annual temperature increase of 2-3^oC for Turkey by 2100.  In the western half of the country, summer temperatures are expected to increase up to 6^oC. 

Being an important economic and social sector in Turkey, agriculture will require special attention, since the studies display that it is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Agriculture occupies an important role in the rural economy, and adverse effects of climate change on water resources will be reflected in water scarcity and drought, thus increasing the need for irrigation.

To investigate the likely consequences of climate change on surface waters, a water budget model for the Gediz and Büyük Menderes Basins along the Aegean coast of Turkey was undertaken .  The results indicate that by 2050, water runoff will reduce by 35-48%, potential evaporation will increase by 15-17%, crop water demand will increase by 19-23% and surface waters will be reduced by about 35%.

Higher temperatures, greater evapotranspiration and reduced rainfall will also markedly reduce livestock carrying capacity in Turkey.  Grazing lands are already under enormous pressure with more than 85% of Turkey’s total land area ‘highly vulnerable to desertification’.

Turkey is taking various actions to fight against negative effects of climate change. These include; management of drought, reduction of erosion, sustainable use of water resources, conservation of biodiversity and enhancing food security.

Further national information

• Link to national homepages

www.climate.gov.tr

• Link to national reports

http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/47 71.php

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/turnc1.pdf