Air pollution - Outlook 2020 (Slovenia)

The SO₂ projections point to a reduction in emissions up to 2020. Up to 2015, emissions will stay at around the same level as in 2007, but after 2015 they will fall owing to the switching of fuels in generating electricity and heat. After 2010, emissions of SO₂ should no longer exceed the national ceiling set in Directive 2001/81/EC (OP TGP-1, 2009).

Projections for NO_x point to a reduction in emissions up to 2020 – until 2010 emissions are due to rise relative to 2007, but after 2010 they should fall as a result of the tightening of requirements on NO_x concentrations in vehicle exhaust gases. After 2015, a reduction is expected from the tightening of permitted NO_x concentrations in the flue gases of large thermal power facilities the replacement of fuels in generating electricity and heat, and the continued tightening of requirements for NO_x concentrations in vehicle exhaust gases. The projection of emissions from transport is very uncertain because of the influence of transit traffic that has increased markedly since Slovenia’s entry into the EU in 2004. According to the projections, in 2010 emissions of NO_x should exceed the national ceiling set in Directive 2001/81/EC (OP TGP-1, 2009).

According to the projections, after 2010 VOC emissions should be below the limit value set in Directive 2001/81/EC. The reduction in emissions is a consequence of replacing old boilers running on wood biomass with new ones featuring better combustion and also the tightening of the requirements for VOC concentrations in motor vehicle exhaust gases (OP TGP-1, 2009).

Up to 2010, projections show NH₃ emissions increasing owing to the increased number of animals. The lowering of emissions after that year is the result of implementing reduction measures in cattle farming, the result of the promotion of pasture husbandry (OP TGP-1, 2009).

The projections indicate a reduction in PM₁₀ emissions after 2010. This should be the result of reduced emissions in the sectors of transformation and technological processes. Transformation emissions should fall following the tightening of legislation in 2008, and in technological processes from the closure of electrolysis B at the Talum company. The slow reduction in emissions after 2010 should be the result from fuel combustion in broad consumption and transport (MOP, 2007).

Table 1: Emission projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020

Source: Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, 2007 and Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, 2009.