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Sound and independent information
on the environment

Croatia

Climate change mitigation (Croatia)

Why should we care about this issue

Published: 26 Nov 2010 Modified: 23 Nov 2010

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing modern society. Despite the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from Croatia account for less than 0.1 % of global emissions and the country has some of the lowest per capita emissions in Europe compared to other Kyoto Protocol Annex I countries, the effects of climate change will not be avoided.

It is estimated that climate change in Croatia will mainly affect the sectors of agriculture, fisheries, hydropower and tourism. These sectors account for 25% of the Croatian economy, employ almost 600.000 people and represent a total annual GDP of 9 billion €. During 2000–2007, due to extreme weather conditions (drought, frost and hail), the agricultural sector suffered estimated losses of EUR 176 million per annum on average. This is equivalent to 0.6% of GDP or 9.3% of the Gross Value Added (GVA) generated in agriculture, forestry and fisheries [1].

Since increase in extreme weather conditions frequency and intensity is expected in the future due to climate change, it is necessary to develop, based on climate models, an estimate of certain climate parameters (precipitation, temperature) for  Croatia and their impact on the above sectors.

 

The key drivers and pressures

Published: 26 Nov 2010 Modified: 13 Apr 2011

Figures

Figure 1. Trend for GHG emissions by sector, 1990 – 2008 [2]

Data source
http://www.mzopu.hr/default.aspx?id=3967
Figure 1. Trend for GHG emissions by sector, 1990 – 2008 [2]
Fullscreen image Original link

Figure 2. Total energy consumption breakdown, 1990–2008 [3]

Data source
This figure has no data source. For further information contact  EEA enquiry service.

Figure 2. Total energy consumption breakdown, 1990–2008 [3]
Fullscreen image Original link

Figure 3. Total energy consumption in Croatia, 1990–2008 [3]

Data source
http://www.eihp.hr/english/
Figure 3. Total energy consumption in Croatia, 1990–2008 [3]
Fullscreen image Original link
Data sources
Source

Greenhouse gas emissions

The general decline in economic activity during the period 1991-1994, primarily due to the war in Croatia, led to a reduction in the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. However, in 1995, emissions began to rise again at an average rate of 3% per annum, with the largest contribution of Energy, Industrial Processes and Waste sectors.

Total GHG emission in 2008 [2] expressed as CO2 equivalent, including removals by sinks, was 31,132 Gg CO2 eq., which is emission reduction by 0.9% compared to 1990 GHG emission.

 

Sector emissions

The Energy sector is the biggest contributor to GHG emissions. In 2008, CO2 emissions from the heat and power production at thermal power plants, public heating plants and in public boiler houses amounted to 6,704 Gg CO2 eq., representing 21.5% of total GHG emissions in Croatia.

In the Industrial processes sector, key emission sources are the production of cement, lime, ammonia and nitric acid and the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in refrigeration and air-conditioning systems, accounting for 99% of all emissions in this sector during 2008.

With regard to CH4 emissions in the Agriculture sector, the main source is animal husbandry (enteric fermentation). CH4 emissions experienced a downward trend until 2000, when an increase in the number of cattle led to a rise in emissions which continued until 2006. Direct N2O emissions resulting from agricultural land tillage, emissions from the decomposition of animal waste (manure management) and indirect emissions have generally been stable over the past ten years [2].

 

Table 1. Emissions and removals of GHG by sector, 1990-2008 [2]

Source

Emission and removals of greenhouse gases (Gg CO2-eq)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2006

2007

2008

Energy

22,160

16,463

18,766

22,226

22,378

23,628

22,473

Industrial processes

4,198

2,574

3,229

3,690

3,872

4,080

4,129

Use of solvents and other products

131

124

115

203

231

255

253

Agriculture

4,361

3,063

3,133

3,473

3,497

3,443

3,359

Waste

590

727

643

800

855

887

930

Total GHG emissions

31,441

22,951

25,886

30,392

30,833

32,294

31,143

Removals (LULUCF)

-8,293

-7,475

-10,080

-10,753

-10,785

-11,171

-11,167

Total GHG emissions (including Land use, Land-use Change & Forestry - LULUCF)

23,1481

15,476

15,806

19,640

20,049

21,123

19,977

Source: Ministry of Environmental Protection,
Physical Planning and Construction, http://www.mzopu.hr/default.aspx?id=3967

 

Energy consumption

The major reason for the increase in GHG emission in Energy sector is increase in production and consequently increase in electricity and heat demand, along with increase in transport due to growth in number of motor vehicles and consumption of fuel.

In 2008, total energy consumption in Croatia was 413.24 PJ, resulting in per capita energy consumption that was 61.2% of the average per capita consumption in the European Union (EU 27). The largest share of approximately 30% is attributed to general consumption, while the transport share varies from 18-22%. Energy consumption in industry has gradually been decreasing and in recent years it accounted for 14-15% only, while the share of losses from energy transformations is 18-19%. Consumption of energy for non-energy use amounts to around 7% and energy transmission and distribution losses are 2-3%. During the period 2000-2008, energy consumption for operation of power plants and losses from energy transmission and distribution decreased at average annual rates of 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. In the same period, the average annual rate of increase in energy consumption for transport was 4.2%, in general consumption 2.1% and in industry 2.3%. Energy transformation losses and consumption for non-energy use increased slightly to an annual average rate of 1.1% and 0.7% respectively [3].

A breakdown of the individual energy shares making up the total consumption indicates that liquid fuels have the highest share at 44-46%, followed by natural gas, which has increased to around 27% in recent years. The average share of hydropower is 10-16%, depending on hydrological conditions, while the share for fire wood and biomass fuels was just over 3% in the recent  years. The share of other renewable energy sources (RES) in 2008 is very low, representing only 0.2%, but a continuous increase in installed capacities for heat and power production from the so called "new renewable energy sources" (solar, wind, geothermal, biogas and landfill gas, biodiesel, etc) has been noticed in the last five years.  The share for coal is around 8%. Imported electricity represents 4-6% of the total energy consumed and 35% of the total electricity consumption [3].

Growth trends in national GDP, total energy consumption and electricity consumption have resulted in a welcome reduction of energy intensities. During the period 2000-2008, energy intensity fell by an average annual rate of 2.6%, with an average annual rate of decrease by 4% from 2005 to 2008 [3].

 

 

 

The 2020 outlook

Published: 26 Nov 2010 Modified: 08 Apr 2011

Figures

Figure 5. Projections of GHG emissions in Croatia, 1990–2030 [5]

Data source
http://www.fzoeu.hr/hrv/index.asp
Figure 5. Projections of GHG emissions in Croatia, 1990–2030 [5]
Fullscreen image Original link

Emission projections and effects of implementation of policy and measures

The 2008-2011 Air Quality Protection and Improvement Plan for the Republic of Croatia (Official Gazette 61/2008) defined 33 measures for climate change mitigation which are currently either in preparation or being implemented. An accompanying GHG emission trend in the period 1990-2008 indicates an obvious deceleration of the emission increase during the recent years, which is partly an outcome of measures taken to fulfil the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Most of the measures are long-term and their effect will only be visible in the post-2011 period [4].

The GHG emission projections for the period until 2030 had not taken into consideration the effects of the economic crisis which started in 2008. Foreseeable impact of the economic crisis shall affect the GHG emission so that it will increase the likelihood that Croatia will meet its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol [5]. In the context of post-Kyoto negotiations, Croatia has submitted its 2013-2020 target to the UNFCCC Secretariat and aims to reduce emissions by 5% in relation to the base year [6] (Decision 7/CP12 included).

 

Table 2. ‘With measures’ scenario in relation to the Kyoto target (Gg CO2 eq) [5]

 

 

1990

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2008–2012

1

BASE YEAR, according to Decision 7/CP12

34,822

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

KYOTO TARGET, 95% OF BASE YEAR

33,081

33,081

33,081

33,081

33,081

33,081

165,405

3

'WITH MEASURES' SCENARIO

 

32,585

33,335

34,085

35,095

36,105

171,205

4

'WITH MEASURES' SCENARIO + LAND USE AND FORESTRY

 

31,613

32,363

33,113

34,123

35,133

166,345

5

IN RELATION TO KYOTO TARGET (5-3)

 

-1,468

-718

32

1,042

2,052

940

 Source: Ministry for Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, http://www.mzopu.hr/default.aspx?id=3967

 

 

Existing and planned responses

Published: 26 Nov 2010 Modified: 22 Dec 2010

Measures and activities in the Energy sector

The Energy sector (stationary sources) accounts for around 50% of total GHG emissions in Croatia. The activities intensified during the recent years, and a number of bylaws aiming at increase in energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources and efficient cogenerations has been passed, which should indirectly result in mitigation of the environmental impact of Energy sector. The Energy Strategy is a baseline document which defines energy policy and sets the following targets and measures for the reduction of GHG emissions [7]:

  • Energy efficiency in energy production and consumption

    - 10% reduction of direct energy consumption by 2020 as compared to average consumption in 2001–2005 period.

  • Increase in share of renewable energy sources in gross direct energy consumption to 20% by 2020. Sectoral targets are:

     - 35% RES in electricity production, including large hydroelectric power plants (9.2% of total RES share);

     - 10% in transport (2.2.% of total RES share);

     - 20% for heating and cooling systems (8.6% of total RES share).

  • Inclusion in EU emission trading system and the application of other flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol
  • Preparation for the application of CO2 capture and separation technology in new coal-firing thermal power plants and storage in geologic formations
  • Research and application of CO2 injection technology for enhanced oil recovery (EOR)
  • Decisions on the use of nuclear energy
  • Promotion of research and transfer of new technologies for energy production, energy conservation, renewable energy sources, use of hydrogen, transportation efficiency, intelligent network systems, CO2 storage, etc.

 

Setting up the emissions trading system

In order to harmonise the Croatian legislation with Directive 2003/87/EC which introduced the system of GHG emission trading among EU Member States, the Croatian government issued the Regulation on Greenhouse Gas Emission Allowances and Emissions Trading (Official Gazette 142/08) in 2008. This regulation establishes a GHG emissions trading system in accordance with the criteria used to establish the EU trading system. For the first time this sets an upper limit for GHG emissions for electricity producers and industrial facilities in Croatia. By the Air Protection Act (Official Gazette 178/04, 60/08) the government adopted an Allocation Plan for Greenhouse Gas Emission Allowances in the Republic of Croatia (Official Gazette 76/09). The plan sets upper limits for  carbon dioxide emissions for the period 2010 to 2012 for the operators to which the Regulation applies. The Croatian emission trading system is planned to be implemented in two phases. During 2009-2010, the operators will obtain permits for emissions, and during 2010-2012 they will monitor emissions from the plants and submit verified reports thereon. Upon the accession of Croatia to the EU, allowances will be allocated to the accounts of plants in the Register and the Croatian ETS system will be integrated into the EU ETS.

 

UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

The UN Convention on Climate Change came into force in July 1996 (Official Gazette-International Treaties, 2/96). As a country in transition to a market economy Croatia assumed obligations as a party to Annex I of the Convention and now regularly submits its Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports (NIR) and periodic reports to the UNFCCC Secretariat [5].

When it ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2007, Croatia accepted a series of additional requirements and commitments, including:

  • The establishment of a national system for the assessment of emissions from anthropogenic sources and removals by sinks of all GHG gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol (in accordance with Article 5 of the Kyoto Protocol);
  • The setting up of a national register of GHG emissions in order to calculate allocated amounts exactly and meet requirements for monitoring, reporting and revision under Articles 7 and 8 of the Kyoto Protocol.

The key document defining the position, goals and methods for fulfilling the commitments under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol is the National Strategy and Action Plan for the Implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Furthermore, in May 2008, the Croatian government adopted the Air Quality Protection and Improvement Plan for the Republic of Croatia 2008-2011 (Official Gazette 61/2008). The National Strategy and Action Plan for the Implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol is an integral part of this plan.

The GHG emissions are currently below the Croatia's commitment under the Kyoto Protocol in relation to the base year 1990, including the additional 3,500 Gg CO2–eq. approved at the 12th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC Convention from Nairobi (Decision 7/CP12). Applicability of the Decision 7/CP12 is under consideration. In case it will not be able to use the base year determined by the 7/CP12, Croatia will have to invest additional efforts and funds in "additional measures" scenario in order to meet its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. 

 

References:

[1] Human Development Report – Climate for Change, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Croatia, Zagreb, 2008

[2] Report of the Greenhouse Gas Inventory of the Republic of Croatia for the Period 1990-2007 (NIR 2009)

[3] Draft Report on the State of the Environment in the Republic of Croatia, Croatian Environment Agency

[4] Air Quality Protection and Improvement Plan for the Republic of Croatia for the Period 2008-2011 (Official Gazette 61/08)

[5] Fifth National Communication of the Republic of Croatia under the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Official Gazette 24/10)

[6] Quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020

[7] Energy Strategy for the Republic of Croatia (Official Gazette 130/09)

 

 

Disclaimer

The country assessments are the sole responsibility of the EEA member and cooperating countries supported by the EEA through guidance, translation and editing.

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