Air pollution - Outlook 2020 (Croatia)

Projections [4] for four main pollutants show that 2010 emissions of SO₂, NO_x and NMVOC will be below the emission ceilings as defined by the Gothenburg Protocol while the NH₃ emission is expected to be above the emission ceilings. As far as Croatian legislation is concerned, it is expected that the requirements of the Regulation on Emission Ceilings for Certain Pollutants [5] will be met. Under the Regulation on Emission Ceilings for Certain Pollutants, Croatia has to reduce the NH₃ emission to stipulated limit value of 45 Gg. The commitment under the Gothenburg Protocol is more stringent, i.e. 30 Gg.

It is expected that, in 2015 and 2020, Croatia will also meet the Gothenburg Protocol requirements for SO₂, NO_x and NMVOC emissions, while in the case of NH₃ it will probably not meet these requirements unless additional measures are taken (Figure 13).

It should be pointed out that these projections are based on future energy consumption according to the Energy Strategy for the Republic of Croatia (Official Gazette 130/09) and the relevant legislation (Table 1), but without taking into account the economic crisis which may affect the implementation of the Strategy.

If the measures from the Programme for Gradual Emission Reduction of Certain Pollutants [4] were implemented, reduction in pollutant emission should be expected and consequently probable mitigation of their impact on human health and the environment.

Table 1: Targets according to the Gothenburg Protocol and the Regulation on Emission Ceilings in comparison with projected emissions in the no measures taken (NM), measures taken (M) and additional measures (AM) scenarios for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020