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Requested sea level rise for an amplification factor of 10 and 100 times

The projected probability increase of a certain extreme sea level is often presented as an amplification factor (AF) that indicates the ratio between the future and historical probability of that extreme sea level (Hermans et al., 2023). The use of these estimates allow one to evaluate the changes of the 1-in-100 years extreme events according to sea level rise projections and provide an estimate of the requested SLR increase to determine a more frequent occurrence, e.g. 1-in-10 year (AF10) or every year (AF100).

Return period of current 100‐year extreme sea levels under two emissions scenarios

Solid coloured boxes show the ensemble mean value and coloured shading shows the inter‐model variability (from worst to best case). The mean value for the entire European coastline and values for the coasts of 10 geographical regions are shown. N-North, northern part of the North Atlantic; S-North Atlantic, southern part of the North Atlantic; RCP, representative concentration pathway; RCP4.5: medium emissions scenario; RCP8.5: high emissions scenario

Sea-level change at different European tide-gauge stations 1896-2004

Data (mm/year) corrected with regard to postglacial land movement and gravity-field variation.

Trend in absolute sea level in European seas based on satellite measurements (1992–2013)

Trend in absolute sea level in European seas based on satellite measurements (1992–2013)

Trend in absolute sea level across Europe based on satellite measurements, 1993-2019

Spatial distribution of trends in mean sea level in European seas (January 1993- February 2019).

Trend in absolute sea level across Europe based on satellite measurements

Spatial distribution of trends in mean sea level in European seas (January 1993- December 2017)

Trend in relative sea level at selected European tide gauge stations, 1970-2016

Urban land-use classes in sea‑level rise and surge‑prone areas

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Timing of occurrence of a 10 times amplification of the 1-in-100 years historical extreme in CMIP6 future projections

The projected probability increase of a certain extreme sea level is often presented as an amplification factor (AF) that indicates the ratio between the future and historical probability of that extreme sea level (commonly the 1-in-100 years extreme event). The use of the historical probability of the 1-in-100 years extreme sea level combined with future projections of sea level rise, available from CMIP6 projections (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6), allow to provide and estimate of the year of occurrence for a 10 times amplification of the historical event (AF10) under an optimistic future scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6) and a future one without significant emissions abatement (SSP5-8.5).

Observed and projected change in sea level 1970–2008, relative to the sea level in 1990

The solid lines are based on observations smoothed to remove the effects of interannual variability (light lines connect data points). Data in most recent years are obtained via satellite based sensors. The envelope of IPCC (2001) projections is shown for comparison; this includes the broken lines as individual projections and the shading as the uncertainty around the projections.

Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level and (c) northern hemispheric snow cover for March-April

All changes are relative to the period 19611990

Past trend and projected change in relative sea level across Europe

The arrows show the observed trend in sea level relative to land since 1970 for those tide gauges along the Europe coastline with sufficiently long time series (mm/year). Projections: European sea level change for 2081–2100 for SSP5-8.5 in metres. Results use CMIP6 model projections for long term scenario (2081-2100), for SSP5-8.5, and with respect to a baseline of 1995-2014.

Potential inundation exposure for coastal cities due to projected sea level rise and storm surge events

The map shows the proportion of the city area (UMZ inside the core city) that would be affected by potential inundation caused by a sea level rise of 1m.

Projected change in relative sea level, 2081-2100

European sea level change for 2081–2100 for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in metres. Results are median values based on the values in SROCC Table 4.4 for Antarctica including GIA and the gravitational and rotational effects, and results by Church et al. (2013) for glaciers, LWS and Greenland.

Projected change in relative sea level, 2081–2100

The map shows the projected change in relative sea level in 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005 for the medium-low emission scenario RCP4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models. Projections consider land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment but not land subsidence due to human activities. No projections are available for the Black Sea.

Projected global average sea-level rise, 1990–2100

Past observed and projected sea level rise from various information sources

Projected global average sea-level rise 1990-2100

Six SRES scenarios are shown

Projections for global mean sea level rise and its contributions

Projections for global mean sea level rise and its contributions in 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 from process-based models for the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and emisions scenario SRES A1B used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The grey boxes show the median of the model projections (central bar) as well as the likely range, which comprises two thirds of the model projections. The coloured bars and boxes show estimates for the different contributions to global sea-level rise. For further information, see the source document.

Coastal — relative sea level

More than one third of the European population lives in coastal regions. Low-lying countries, islands and communities know from experience that rising sea levels are a major climate hazard. Higher relative sea levels and corresponding storm surges threaten property, infrastructure and lives. They can lead to coastal erosion and make surface water and groundwater unusable through saltwater intrusion, with knock-on effects for agriculture and coastal and land ecosystems. Local sea level rise can be strongly affected by human activities, such as groundwater extraction or soil compaction from buildings. Understanding all this is crucial not only for coastal planning, ecosystem management and protection but also for putting in place measures to protect transport, energy and other infrastructure.

European coastal lowlands most vulnerable to sea level rise

Observed change in global mean sea level

The figure shows the global mean sea level from 1860 to 2009 as estimated from coastal and island sea-level data (1880 – 2009, blue) and from satellite altimeter data (1993 – 2009, grey).

Change in sea level 1970–2008, relative to the sea level in 1990

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Projected change in the frequency of historical 1-in-100 year coastal flooding events by 2100

This maps show the estimated multiplication factor, by which the frequency of flooding events of a given height changes between 2010 and 2100 due to projected regional sea relative level rise under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Values larger than 1 indicate an increase in flooding frequency. Adapted from Figure 4.12 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere (SROCC).

Change in the height of a 50-year return period extreme water level event to the end of the 21st century for different scenarios

The water level is measured relative to the present day tide, due to changes in atmospheric storminess, an increase in mean sea level and vertical land movements

Changes in global sea level 1870-2006

Changes in global sea level 1870-2006