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BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods
A cross-country analysis
Catalogue of scenario studies — Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services
The report brings together a review of available scenarios studies relevant to environmental assessment and decision-making at the European (or sub-European) scale (263 studies), and facts sheets of selected 44 studies using common description categories, which enables the user to review existing scenario studies that may be of relevance to their particular interest and benefit from them. It is also a contribution to the evolving knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services (FLIS).
Resource parameters by scenario including the parameter
State and trend of fire danger for the period
The left panel shows the average SSR values during the period 1981 to 2010 whereas the right panel shows the linear trend in the same period.
Terrestrial mean species abundance, globally and for selected world regions
Terrestrial mean species abundance, expressed as percentage of the level that natural vegetation could support.
The rate of change for the base line and the climate action scenarios, compared with pre-industrial
Dotted lines show the proposed rate of change objective.
Other parameters by scenarios including the parameter
Past and projected prices of fossil fuels and electricity 1970-2050 in the baseline and LCEP scenarios
Potential level of invasive species pressure on forest ecosystems
Projected changes in annual mean temperature (left) and annual precipitation (right)
Projected changes are for 2071-2100, compared to 1971-2000, based on the average of a multi-model ensemble forced with the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. All changes marked with a colour (i.e. not white) are statistically significant. Individual models from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble or high-resolution models for smaller regions may show different results.
Projected change in Bumblebee climatically suitable areas
The map shows the projected change in the climatic suitable area for the Bumblebee Bombus terrestris (the largest and one of the most numerous bumblebee species in Europe) under the combined climate-land use scenario SEDG (Sustainable European Development Goal, including SRES B1) and GRAS (including SRES A2).
Projected change in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation, 2071-2100
Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) in the period 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period 1971-2000 for the forcing scenario RCP 8.5. Model simulations are based on the multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative.
Projected changes in annual, summer and winter temperature
Projected changes in annual (left), summer (middle) and winter (right) near-surface air temperature (°C) in the period 2071-2100, compared with the baseline period 1971-2000 for the forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 (top) and RCP 8.5 (bottom). Model simulations are based on the multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative.
Projected changes in the climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell
This figure shows the future distribution of climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell (Aglais urticae) under the A2 climate change scenario and two future time periods (2021-2050 left, 2051-2080 right). Dark grey areas show space that remains suitable, magenta areas space that is lost and green areas show space that could be gained under full dispersal. Northern parts of Europe are expected to remain suitable for the Small Tortoiseshell under all scenarios, but large areas of central Europe would become unsuitable. The worst case loss is 55% of its climatic niche by 2080 under no dispersal or 46% loss under full dispersal.
Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region
Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region. EU-27 only; A1B scenario, 2070–2100, combined effects of climate change and socio-economic change
Projected global energy investment 2000-50, climate change action scenario
Projected changes in fire danger
Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Based on projections by the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RACMO2 driven by the Global Climate Model (GCM) ECHAM5 for the SRES A1B emission scenario. Left: projected change in SSR by 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990 baseline period; Right: projected annual average SSR in 2071–2100.
Projected spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly and its host plants
This figure shows spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) and its host plants under the BAMBU scenario (climate: A2) for 2050-2080. Green, suitable climate space for the host plants;orange, suitable climate space for the butterfly; red, suitable area for both butterfly and host plants; open circles, currently observed distribution. BAMBU: Business-As-Might-Be-Usual scenario.
Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments for four major categories
Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments for four major categories for two different socio economic scenarios and three different future periods. Left: damage costs for the A1B scenario for energy for cooling, heat-related mortality (weighted average of Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and Value of a Life Year Lost (VOLY)), river floods and coastal zones. Time horizon: 2010–2040, 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. Right: A1B and E1 scenarios, 2070–2100.
Recycling vs. Incineration, study S9 included
Recycling vs. Incineration, without study S9
Recycling vs. Landfilling
Emissions to air related to scenarios including the emission
Emissions to soil by scenarios including the emission
Expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios
The figure shows the expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios by 2100. The S550e scenario corresponds to a stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent and a global mean temperature increase of 2°C, the baseline scenario corresponds to a global mean temperature increase of more than 3°C.