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BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods
A cross-country analysis
Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature
Faced with risk and uncertainty, environmental policy-makers are increasingly using scenario planning to guide decision‑making. The vibrancy of the field is evident in the numerous case studies conducted using diverse methodologies. Yet even well‑crafted scenarios can fail to have their intended policy impact if they present irrelevant information, lack support from relevant actors, are poorly embedded into relevant organisations or ignore key institutional context conditions. Unfortunately, the shortage of research on scenario planning and its influence means that there is limited guidance on how to optimise scenarios, in terms of both outputs and uptake by policy-makers. This technical report addresses this lack of information, presenting a review of relevant academic and non‑academic literature on the issue.
Natural capital accounting in support of policymaking in Europe
Maintaining 'natural capital', i.e. ecosystems and the services they provide, is fundamental to human economic activity and well-being. The need to conserve and enhance natural capital is therefore an explicit policy target in the EU's Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 and its Seventh Environment Action Programme. Approaches to measuring the stocks of natural resources that yield benefits as natural capital have gained considerable traction in recent decades. By providing regular, objective data that are consistent with wider statistical data, natural capital accounting can provide the fundamental evidence base required for informing economic and environmental decision making that delivers on these ambitions for natural capital.