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BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods
A cross-country analysis
Catalogue of scenario studies — Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services
The report brings together a review of available scenarios studies relevant to environmental assessment and decision-making at the European (or sub-European) scale (263 studies), and facts sheets of selected 44 studies using common description categories, which enables the user to review existing scenario studies that may be of relevance to their particular interest and benefit from them. It is also a contribution to the evolving knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services (FLIS).
Drivers of change of relevance for Europe's environment and sustainability
This report, building on the experience of both the EEA and Eionet, presents a synthesis of global and European megatrends with illustrations of key emerging trends, wild cards and uncertainties. It aims to inform about on‑going, emerging and potential future developments, raise awareness and contribute to the diffusion of anticipatory thinking.
Selected oil and gas reserves
The bars show proved oil and natural gas reserves by country. Only countries with more than 20 billion barrels of oil are shown (top maps). Only countries with more than 3 billion cubic metres are shown (bottom maps).
Selected raw materials: world use and rare earth elements, germanium and tantalum
For the graph: 2006 and projected 2030 world use of neodymium, germanium and tantalum. The technologies responsible for the growth in use of these materials by 2030 are indicated in red. For the map: The bars show estimated reserves of rare earth elements, germanium and tantalum.
Share of global exports
Share of world exports evolution (1980 to 2009) for selected export regions or countries
Share of renewable sources in total primary energy consumption in the Western Balkans, 1995–2005
Share of renewable sources in total primary energy consumption in the Western Balkans, 1995–2005
Shift in trade partner
Top five partners in trade of China, the European Union, the United States and Sub-Saharan Africa for 2006 and projections for 2050
Shortening time lapse before mass use of technological inventions
Timeline describing the ever-shortening time taken by a selection of inventions (telephone, radio, TV, Internet..) to reach a quarter of the population in the US.
Slowdown of urban growth
Historical trends and projections by world regions (1950- 2050) of urban growth rate showing a clear slowdown for all regions
Still a large gap between advanced and emerging economies
GDP per capita from 1980 to 2030
Terrestrial mean species abundance, globally and for selected world regions
Terrestrial mean species abundance, expressed as percentage of the level that natural vegetation could support.
The 2007 minimum sea-ice extent
Note: The extent of the summer sea ice in September 2007 reached a historical minimum, 39 % below the climatic average for the first two decades of satellite observations (red line)
The changing distribution of middle class consumption
The left panel of the figure shows the average middle class consumption per capita for selected world regions/countries. Middle class is defined as people living in households earning and spending between 10 and 100 per person per day (2005 US dollars, in purchasing power parity).
The nitrogen cycle
Global scheme of nitrogen cycle, showing major nitrogen reservoirs (atmosphere, soil and living organisms), major processes (nitrification, denitrification, nitrogen fixation, assimilation etc.) and actors (plants, animals, bacteria, human beings).
The shift in global disease burden, and share of non-communicable diseases by world regions
The graphs compares the shift from communicable to non-communicable diseases globally (left panel) with the (future) development of non-communicable diseases across world income regions.
The weight of trade
Trend of exports as a percentage of gross domestic product
Total GHG emissions in Europe 1990-2030 (baseline scenario)
Total GHG emissions in Europe 1990-2030 (baseline scenario)
Urban trends
Historical urban population trends and projections by world regions (1950- 2050), showing the share of cities with less than 750 000 inhabitants
Various human health risks in relation to development and economic growth and Causes of death
Top graph: From traditional to modern health risks, this “health transition” scheme describes the relation between development and health, distinguishing behavioural risks and the correlated diseases and death causes. Some risks are specifically related to developing countries (blue part of the scheme), others are typically worrying in developed countries (brown part) and some occur everywhere (blue and brown intersection). Bottom graph: Comparison between 2008 and 2030 projected causes of death for 2 income groups.showing the growing projected imoortance of cardiovascular diseases and cancers.
Water erosion risk. Baseline projection to 2030
Location of areas of high risk(red), moderate risk (orange) and low risk (white)of water erosion.
World energy demand
Total primary energy demand by fuel type (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass and waste, other renewable). Distinguishing 2 scenario for 2020 and 2035: IEA-450 scenario and current policies scenario.
World population projections - IIASA probabilistic projections compared to UN projections
This graph compares population projections to 2100 resulting from 2 organisations: the UN Population Division studies fertility-evolution scenarios for produce high, medium and low variant figures, whereas the IIASA bases its calculations on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration.
World population projections - Regional shares of world population
Historical population trends and projections by world region
World premature deaths due to urban pollution from particulate matter and ground-level ozone
The figure shows the projected premature deaths due to particulate matter and ground-level ozone. The OECD’s forecasts are based on modelling and thus depend on a range of assumptions about current and future air pollution and its interaction with other determinants of health, including the potential gains from air and climate policies. The forecasts consider only urban population and include the projected ageing of populations in the coming decades. BRIICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa