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Climate change as a threat to health and well-being in Europe: focus on heat and infectious diseases

This report draws on knowledge developed for the European Climate and Health Observatory. It focuses on the impact high temperatures are having on the population, as well as another emerging threat: the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases.

Standardised death rates (per 100 000) for diarrhoeal diseases in children under 5 years

Tick prevalence (white dots) in central and northern Sweden

Note: White dots show prevalence, comparing the early 1980s and the mid 1990s in the same region (black line).

Various human health risks in relation to development and economic growth and Causes of death

Top graph: From traditional to modern health risks, this “health transition” scheme describes the relation between development and health, distinguishing behavioural risks and the correlated diseases and death causes. Some risks are specifically related to developing countries (blue part of the scheme), others are typically worrying in developed countries (brown part) and some occur everywhere (blue and brown intersection). Bottom graph: Comparison between 2008 and 2030 projected causes of death for 2 income groups.showing the growing projected imoortance of cardiovascular diseases and cancers.

Percentage change of weekly salmonella cases by 1 oC temperature increase

The figure shows the percentage change of weekly salmonella cases 1 degree Celcius temperature increase

Known distribution of the tiger mosquito in Europe (Aedes albopictus)

The maps displays information and the presence/absence of Aedes albopictus. RED: An established population (evidence of reproduction and overwintering) of the species has been observed in at least one municipality within the administrative unit. YELLOW: The species has been introduced (but without confirmed establishment) in the administrative unit within the last 5 years of the distribution status date DARK GREEN: Field surveys or studies on mosquitoes were conducted and no introduction (during the last 5 years) or no established population of the species have been reported MEDIUM GREY: No data for the last 5 years are available to local experts LIGHT GREY: No information is available about field studies on mosquitoes during the last 5 years.

Environmental factors and conflicts possibly causing migration

Colors show Human development Index ranking. Symbols locate possible causes of displacements: environmental upheavals related to climate change and major conflicts since 2000.

Current European distribution of Ixodus ricinus ticks

The maps displays information and the prsence/absence of Ixodes ricinus RED The species is known to have been present at least in one municipality within the administrative unit. YELLOW The species has been introduced in the administrative unit without confirmed establishment. LIGHT GREY No information is available on the existence of field studies on ticks.

Area of damaged forest and other wooded land by biotic agents

Data: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus (partly), Czech Republic (partly), Estonia, Finland, France (partly), Hungary, Italy, Norway (partly), Portugal (partly), Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey (partly), the United Kingdom

Areas of possible establishment of Aedes albopictus (the tiger mosquito) in Europe for 2010 and 2030

Developed by Francis Schaffner (BioSys Consultancy, Zurich), in partnership with Guy Hendrickx/Ernst-Jan Scholte (AviaGIS, Zoersel, Belgium) and Jolyon M Medlock (Health Protection Agency, United Kingdom) for the ECDC TigerMaps project

Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Europe

This figure shows the climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes aegypti (left) and Aedes albopictus (right) in Europe. Darker to lighter green indicates conditions not suitable for the vector whereas yellow to red colours indicate conditions that are increasingly suitable for the vector. Grey indicates that no prediction is possible.

Malaria in 2050

The map shows the current distribution of falciparum malaria (in yellow), areas where it is projected to appear (in red) and disappear (in green) by 2050.

Movements of people: migration and tourism

The map shows 'moving to work and escape poverty': Migration between and inside world regions from 1995 to 2004. Colors show regional migratory balance (surplus or deficit), arrows show major movements between and inside regions. The graph shows 'travelling for leisure': trends in number of tourists since 1950 and projections to 2020.

Global megatrends update: 3 Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics

In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA updated each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately. In mid-2015 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report.