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Requested sea level rise for an amplification factor of 10 and 100 times
The projected probability increase of a certain extreme sea level is often presented as an amplification factor (AF) that indicates the ratio between the future and historical probability of that extreme sea level (Hermans et al., 2023). The use of these estimates allow one to evaluate the changes of the 1-in-100 years extreme events according to sea level rise projections and provide an estimate of the requested SLR increase to determine a more frequent occurrence, e.g. 1-in-10 year (AF10) or every year (AF100).
Trend in relative sea level at selected European tide gauge stations, 1970-2016
Timing of occurrence of a 10 times amplification of the 1-in-100 years historical extreme in CMIP6 future projections
The projected probability increase of a certain extreme sea level is often presented as an amplification factor (AF) that indicates the ratio between the future and historical probability of that extreme sea level (commonly the 1-in-100 years extreme event). The use of the historical probability of the 1-in-100 years extreme sea level combined with future projections of sea level rise, available from CMIP6 projections (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6), allow to provide and estimate of the year of occurrence for a 10 times amplification of the historical event (AF10) under an optimistic future scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6) and a future one without significant emissions abatement (SSP5-8.5).
Past trend and projected change in relative sea level across Europe
The arrows show the observed trend in sea level relative to land since 1970 for those tide gauges along the Europe coastline with sufficiently long time series (mm/year). Projections: European sea level change for 2081–2100 for SSP5-8.5 in metres. Results use CMIP6 model projections for long term scenario (2081-2100), for SSP5-8.5, and with respect to a baseline of 1995-2014.