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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Tourist arrivals - outlook from WTO model / Tourist arrivals - outlook from WTO model (Outlook 043) - Assessment published Jun 2007

Tourist arrivals - outlook from WTO model (Outlook 043) - Assessment published Jun 2007

This content has been archived on 12 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
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Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Tags:
tourism | belgrade
DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 043
 
Contents
 

Key policy question: What are trends in tourism sector in the pan-European region?

Key messages

Assessment created 2007

If current economic, social and industry trends continue*, tourism in the pan-European region and worldwide will grow at an average rate of 4.1 % a year. Very high increases in international tourist arrivals in some SEE and CEE countries will result in additional pressures on the environment.

Globally, international tourist arrivals are projected to top 1 billion in 2010 and reach more than 1.6 billion in 2020, almost doubling the 2005 level.

*Projections are based on the World Tourism Organisation's baseline scenario. This takes account of current economic, social and industry trends (including travel forecasts of aircraft manufacturers); considerations are also given to the wide range of individuals and organisations that present views on the future from one perspective or another.

World share of international tourist arrivals, 2020

Note: International comparison

Data source:

WTO, 2001. Tourism 2020 Vision: Global Forecasts and Profiles of Segments. Volume 4 and 7. World Tourism Organisation.

Downloads and more info

Projections of international tourist arrivals (million) for 2010 and 2020

Note: International comparison

Data source:
Downloads and more info

World share of international tourist arrivals, 2010

Note: International comparison

Data source:

World Tourism Organisation. World figures are from: WTO, Tourism Highlights 2006 Edition.

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

Projections suggest that international tourist arrivals in the pan-European region by 2020 will reach about 717 million. WE will continue to be the most visited tourist destination in the world with a total of more than 500 million tourists in 2020. However, the rate of increase of arrivals over the period 1995-2020 will be the lowest in the pan-European region, at only 2.4 % per year. As a result, the market share of WE is expected to fall from 43 % in 2005 to 33 % in 2020.

Following past trends, international arrivals in CEE and SEE are projected to show the fastest growth, to almost twice the 2000 levels by 2020. The highest growth rates for 1995-2020 will be in Croatia and Serbia, and Montenegro (8.4 %, and 8.2 % per year, respectively), the Russian Federation (6.8 % per year), Slovenia (6 % per year), Turkey (5.5 % per year), Bulgaria and Romania (both 4.6 % per year). The CEE countries' share of the tourist market will increase from 7.5 % in 2010 to 8.7 % in 2020,  partly because of the increased prosperity in these countries.

International arrivals in India and China, increasing by 5.9% and 7.8% per year, respectively, will pass Canada and the US (up to 3.6 % per year), turning the Asian region to the second largest receiving region after WE. The number of international tourist arrivals in China alone is expected to reach 130 million, almost 650 % higher than in 1995. As a result its market share will increase to 8.2 % in 2020.

*Projections are based on the World Tourism Organisation's baseline scenario. This takes account of current economic, social and industry trends (including travel forecasts of aircraft manufacturers); considerations are also given to the wide range of individuals and organisations that present views on the future from one perspective or another.

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

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European Environment Agency (EEA)
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