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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Total fertiliser consumption - outlook from FAO / Total fertiliser consumption - outlook from FAO (Outlook 010) - Assessment published Jun 2007

Total fertiliser consumption - outlook from FAO (Outlook 010) - Assessment published Jun 2007

This content has been archived on 12 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
This indicator is discontinued. No more assessments will be produced.

Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Agriculture Agriculture

Tags:
agriculture | projection | belgrade | fertilisers
DPSIR: Pressure
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 010
 
Contents
 

Key policy question: Are fertilizers being used in a more efficient/sustainable way?

Key messages

Assessment created 2007

The expected growth in populations and economies in all regions** implies increasing demand for crops and other agricultural products worldwide. If the current trends continue and if the efficiency of fertiliser use is improved*, this increasing demand will lead to a 1 % increase per year in global fertiliser use, from 138 million tonne in 1999 to 188 million in 2030 (37 % increase in total).

However, fertiliser use in many developing countries is very inefficient.  Best practices for fertiliser handling could significantly reduce the environmental pressures associated with nutrient losses. Even modest increases in fertiliser application could cause problems when yield growth stagnates, leading to inefficient use of nutrients and severe pollution.

*Projections are based on the Food and Agriculture Organisation vision concerning food, nutrient and agriculture. The vision takes into account current economic, social and industry trends as well as improved efficiency of fertiliser use.

** The European fertiliser manufacturers association make regular forecasts of fertiliser use in the European Union. These forecasts show a decline of all nutrients for 2012 compared with the base year average (1999-2001) (nitrogen 7 %, phosphorus 13 % and potassium 12 %). It is  based on criteria laid down in the current Common Agricultural Policy, but  have not taken into account any of the new measures  in the European Commission's Mid Term Review which could result in an even bigger decline.

Source: Forecast of food, farming and fertilizer use in the European Union, 2002 -2012 , EFMA2012

 

 

Fertiliser consumption in 1997/1999 and projections for 2030

Note: International comparison

Data source:

World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. An FAO Perspective. Food and Agriculture Organisation, 2003

Downloads and more info

Change in fertiliser consumption from 1997/1999 to 2030

Note: International comparison

Data source:

World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. An FAO Perspective. Food and Agriculture Organisation, 2003.

Downloads and more info

Projections of fertiliser consumption

Note: International comparison

Data source:

World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. An FAO Perspective. Food and Agriculture Organisation, 2003.

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

OUTLOOK FACTS AND FIGURES TO 2030

  • Current transition economies (EECCA, SEE and some EU-10 countries) are projected to account for only 5 % of world fertiliser use by 2030. However, fertiliser use in these countries is expected to increase by 32 % from 1999 to 2030, more rapidly than in industrialised countries, following the stabilisation of the economic situation during recent years and the projected economic growth in these regions.
  • North America, Western Europe and other industrialised countries are projected to account for more than 30 % of all fertiliser use in 2030. The increase in these countries** (about 28 % from 1990 to 2030), especially in Western Europe, is expected to lag significantly behind that in other regions of the world. The EU and North America have used a number of research and regulatory measures to limit pollution from fertilisers, but this has not been enough to prevent serious build-up of nitrate in waters. Increasing efficiency of fertiliser use, rising awareness of its negative environmental impacts, and the spread of organic agriculture are key factors for reducing the projected growth in fertiliser consumption.
  • In 2030, China is still likely to be the biggest single consumer of fertilisers - up to 28 % of total world use. Fertiliser consumption there will increase much more rapidly than in other developing countries (by  48 % from 1999 to 2030).

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Tobias Dominik Lung

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Frequency of updates

This indicator is discontinued. No more assessments will be produced.
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Comments

European Environment Agency (EEA)
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Phone: +45 3336 7100