Total fertiliser consumption - outlook from FAO (Outlook 010) - Assessment published Jun 2007

Indicator definition

Total fertiliser consumption refers to the total sum of nitrogen (N), phosphate (P2O5) and potash (K2O) used in agriculture. The time reference is generally the crop year (July through June).

Model used: FAO

Time horizon: 1997/99- 2020

Geographical coverage: Sub-Saharah Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Near East/ North Africa, South Asia, South Asia excl. India, East Asia, East Asia excl. China, Industrial Coutnries, Transition Countries, World.

Units

Fertilizer consumption is measured in two ways: million tones and kg/ha (arable land).

Policy context and targets

Context description

Pan-european policy context

There no specific policies adopted for for Pan-European region. However, the Helsinki Commission for the Protection of Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea (HELCOM) has developed recommendations for its Parties in this regard.

EU policy context

The fertiliser use is relevant to two EU Directives: the Nitrates Directive (91/676/EC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). The Nitrates Directive (Council of the European Communities, 1991) has the general purpose of "reducing water pollution caused or induced by nitrates from agricultural sources and prevent further such pollution" (Art.1). A threshold nitrate concentration of 50 mg/l is set as the maximum permissible level, and the Directive limits applications of livestock manure to land to 170 kg N/ha/yr. The Water Framework Directive (Council of the European Communities, 2000) requires all inland and coastal waters to reach "good status" by 2015. Good ecological status is defined in terms of the quality of the biological community, hydrological characteristics and chemical characteristics. The Sixth environmental action programme (European Commission, 2001), encourages the full implementation of both the Nitrates and Water Framework Directives, in order to achieve levels of water quality that do not give rise to unacceptable impacts on, and risks to, human health and the environment.

EECCA policy context

No specific policy context directly related to the indicator is identified at the subregional level. Indirectly EECCA Environmental Strategy emphasizes a need 'to implement practices for increase of nutrients levels' and 'to provide preconditions for facilitating production of environmentally clean food', which subsequently include amount of used fertilizers.

Targets

Pan-European level

There is no specific target for this indicator

EU level

• Requirement for all inland and coastal waters to reach "good status" by 2015 (The Water Framework Directive (Council of the European Communities, 2000))
• Limits applications of livestock manure to land to 170 kg N/ha/yr (The Nitrates Directive (91/676/EC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC))
• A threshold nitrate concentration of 50 mg/l is set as the maximum permissible level (The Nitrates Directive (91/676/EC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC))

EECCA level

Some countries set national targets for the use of nutrients per hectare frame however these targets are not reported at the international level. Special research is needed to identify availability of targets at the EECCA countries.    

Related policy documents

• Council Directive (91/676/EEC) 12 December 1991
  Council Directive of 12 December 1991 concerning the protection of waters against pollution caused by nitrates from agricultural sources (91/676/EEC).
• Helsinki declaration
  Helsinki declaration on action for environment and health in Europe
• Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC
  Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC: Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Projections for fertilizer consumption have been derived on the basis of the relationship between yields and fertilizer application rates that existed during 1995/97. Data on fertilizer use by crop and fertilizer application rates (kg of fertilizer per ha) are available for all major countries and crops, accounting for 97 percent of global fertilizer use in 1995/97 (FAO/IFA/IFDC, 1999 and Harris, 1997). This relationship is estimated on a cross-section basis for the crops for which data are available and is assumed to hold also over time as yields increase (see Daberkov et al., 1999). It provides a basis for estimating future fertilizer application rates required to obtain the projected increase in yields for most of the crops covered in this study. It implicitly assumes that improvements in nutrient use efficiency will continue to occur as embodied in the relationship between yields and fertilizer application rates (fertilizer response coefficients) estimated for 1995/97.

For more detailed information concerned indicator's calculations see "Methodology references".

Methodology for gap filling

For some crop categories such as citrus, vegetables, fruit and “other cereals”, fertilizer consumption growth is assumed to be equal to the growth in crop production: i.e. for these crops, the base year input-output relationship between fertilizer use and crop production is assumed to remain constant over the projection period. To account fully for all fertilizer consumption, including its use for crops not covered in this study, fertilizer applications on fodder crops were assumed to grow at the same rate as projected growth for livestock (meat and milk) production, and fertilizer applications on “other crops” is at the average rate for all crops covered in the study.

For more detailed description see "Methodology references".

Methodology references

• Alexandratos, N., ed. 1995. World agriculture: towards 2010. An FAO study. Chichester, UK, John Wiley and Rome, FAO.
• Bruinsma J. ed. 2003 World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 An FAO Perspective

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Uncertainty related to the model

The biggest problems related to the use of the FAO model is related to the data uncertainly (see below). Other most important uncertainties include some problems with the exogenous assumptions  and use of only one scenario.

Some problems with the exogenous assumptions: As an example was mentioned the impossibility of foreseeing which countries may face extraordinary events leading to their being worse off in the future than at present.

One scenario: the model presentes  only one possible outcome for  the future based on a positive rather than normative assessment. Alternative scenarios have not been explored for a number of reasons, some conceptual, some practical, and usually a mix of both. Producing an alternative scenario is essentially a remake of the projections with a different set of assumptions. On the practical side, the major constraint is the time-consuming nature of estimating alternative scenarios with the methodology of expert-based inspection, evaluation and iterative adjustments of the projections. On the conceptual side, defining an alternative set of exogenous assumptions that are internally consistent represents a challenge of no easy resolution.

Data uncertainty

The significant commodity and  country details underlying the analysis requires the handling of huge quantities of data. Inevitably, data problems that would remain hidden and go unnoticed in work conducted at the level of large country and commodity aggregates come to the fore all the time. Examples of typical data problems are given below.

Data reliability: When revised numbers become available in the successive rounds of updating and revision of the historical data, it is not uncommon to discover that some of the data were off the mark, sometimes by a very large margin. It may happen therefore that changes projected to occur in the future have already occurred in the past.

Unbalanced world trade: A second data problem relates to the large discrepancies often encountered in the trade statistics, i.e. world imports are not equal to world exports. Small discrepancies are inevitable and can be ignored but large ones pose serious problems since in the projections exporting countries must produce export surpluses equal to the net imports of other countries.

Uncertainty for indicators calculations

The total fertiliser consumption does not reflect the efficiency of fertiliser use per unit of crop or per unit of land. It also does not provide information regarding environmental impact and nutrient discharge. The actual environmental effects will depend on pollution abatement methods, soil and plant types, and meteorological conditions. Time series analysis of fertilizers consumption can however allow monitoring of its effect on the environment and enables preparation of strategies for mitigation of negative impacts of fertilizers on the environment.

Data sets uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified