Total electricity consumption - outlook from IEA (Outlook 028) - Assessment published Jun 2006
Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
- Outlook 028
Key policy question: Are we consuming less electricity?
If current technological trends continue and government policies that have been adopted are implemented*, electricity consumption per capita is expected to continue to grow in all regions/countries. The increase in the pan-European region from 2004 to 2030 is projected to be much smaller (up to 70 %) than in the Asian countries (200 % in China), but substantially higher than in the US (19 %).
The share of electricity consumption in total final energy consumption is projected to continue to grow worldwide, with the largest increases in China and India.
Electricity consumption per capita and final energy consumption per capita in 2004 and projections for 2030
Note: International comparison
Projected percentage change in per capita electricity consumption from 2004 to 2030
Note: International comparison
World energy outlook 2006. Copyright OECD/IEA (2006), Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections, as modified by the EEA.
- The highest increase in electricity consumption per capita in the pan-European region from 2004 to 2030 is projected for Russia (about 70 %), followed by the other transition countries (about 58 %), and OECD Europe (38 %). This would result in electricity consumption per capita in Russia almost reaching the same level as OECD Europe by 2030 (0.65 toe per capita compared with 0.69), while other transition countries would still lag behind (0.31 toe per capita).
- The percentage change in per capita electricity consumption from 2004 to 2030 is expected to remain the lowest in the US (about 20 %), but the US is still projected to have the highest per capita consumption (1.25 toe per capita), three times the world average.
- Asia is projected to be the main engine for global growth in electricity consumption. The increase in per capita electricity consumption from 2004 to 2030 would be the highest in China and India, reaching almost 200 %. This would double the share of electricity consumption in final energy consumption in these countries.
* Projections are based on the IEA reference case scenario, which takes into account government policies enacted and adopted by mid-2006, even though many of these have not been fully implemented. Possible, potential or even unlikely future measures are not considered. The reference scenario is based on the UNSTAT projections of population growth (world average growth 1 % per year for 2004-2030) and OECD and International Monetary Fund projections for economic development (world average growth 3 4% for 2004-2030). It is assumed that energy supply and energy use technologies become steadily more efficient, though at varying speeds for each fuel and each sector, depending on the potential for efficiency gains and the stage of technology development and commercialisation. New policies - excluded from the Reference scenario - would be needed to accelerate deployment of more efficient and cleaner technologies.
Input data to WEO model - primary demand for fossil fuels
Input data to WEO model - technological developments
Input data to WEO model - economic growth
Output from WEO - Total Energy Production
Input data to WEO model - electricity consumption
Input data to WEO model - electricity prices
Input data to WEO model - fuel prices
Input data to WEO model - population
More information about this indicator
See this indicator specification for more details.
Contacts and ownership
EEA Contact InfoAnita Pirc Velkavrh
EEA Management Plan2010 (note: EEA internal system)
For references, please go to www.eea.europa.eu/soer or scan the QR code.
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