Total electricity consumption - outlook from EEA (Outlook 051) - Assessment published Jun 2006
Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B – Does it matter?)
- Outlook 051
Key policy question: Are we consuming less electricity?
Assessment of 2007
Final electricity demand is expected to decouple relatively from GDP, particularly in the New-10. However, reliance on electricity as the main energy carrier, particularly for services and the domestic sector, is expected to continue to grow at an average rate of 1.7 % per year between 2000 and 2030; electricity demand is therefore expected to increase by 50 % over this period.
Total energy consumption and final electricity demand vs. GDP growth 1990-2030
EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), 2003-2004.
Changes in primary energy production patterns (especially in many new Member States), characterised by the closure of unprofitable coalmines that took place in the 1990s and which is expected to continue to some extent over the next few decades.
While energy consumption increases at a rather low pace through 2030, there is a steep decline in indigenous production, in particular of hydrocarbons, solid fuels and nuclear. Only renewables production is expected to increase In 2030, current baseline projections have oil production declining by 73%, gas production would be 59% lower and solid fuel production is expected to sink by 41%. Nuclear generation might decrease by 11%, whereas the production of renewables should more than double between 2000 and 2030. All together, total indigenous energy production in 2030 would be 25% lower than it was in 2000.
Assessment is based on the report "European Energy and Transport: Trends to 2030" (update 2005) (some trends are recalculated a bit)Link: http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/trends_2030_update_2005/energy_transport_trends_2030_update_2005_en.pdf
Input data to PRIMES - macro-economic data: demographics, antional accounts, sectoral activity and income variables - output from EUROSTAT data
Input data to PRIMES model - structure of energy consumtpion and structure of activity variables - output from EUROSTAT data
Output data from PRIMES -Total primary energy production - output from PRIMES model
provided by Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
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