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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Renewable energy consumption - outlook from IEA / Renewable energy consumption - outlook from IEA (Outlook 039) - Assessment published Jun 2006

Renewable energy consumption - outlook from IEA (Outlook 039) - Assessment published Jun 2006

This content has been archived on 12 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
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Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Energy Energy

Tags:
renewable energy | energy | energy consumption | fuels | belgrade
DPSIR: Response
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 039
Geographic coverage:
Albania Armenia Austria Azerbaijan Belarus Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Canada China Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Georgia Germany Greece Hungary Iceland India Ireland Italy Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia (FYR) Malta Mexico Moldova Montenegro Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Serbia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Tajikistan Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Kingdom United States Uzbekistan
 
Contents
 

Key policy question: Are we switching to renewable sources?

Key messages

Assessment created 2007

If current technological trends continue and government policies that have been adopted are implemented*,the use of renewable energy in the pan-European region is projected to increase, mainly because of the large increase in OECD Europe. Global renewable energy consumption is projected to increase from 1 475 Mtoe in 2004 to 2 349 Mtoe in 2030. The share of renewables in TEC is projected to increase slightly (from 13 % in 2004 to 14 % in 2030), mainly because of the expected efforts in Europe and North America.

Although biomass would lose part of its share to other forms of energy, it is projected to continue to dominate the renewables market in all the regions except the Eastern part of Europe. Hydropower is expected to remain the second largest renewable source, but to remain the most important in the Eastern part of Europe (about 50 % in 2030). Non-hydro renewables** are  projected to grow the fastest, but with their share in total energy consumption still only reaching 1.7 % in 2030 - up from 0.5 % today.

Renewable share of total energy consumption in 2004 and projections for 2030

Note: International comparison

Data source:
Downloads and more info

Fuel shares in total renewable consumption in 2004 and projections for 2030

Note: International comparison

Data source:

World energy outlook 2006. OECD/IEA (2006), Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections, as modified by the EEA.

Downloads and more info

Projected percentage change in renewables consumption by type from 2004 to 2030

Note: International comparison

Data source:

World energy outlook 2006. OECD/IEA (2006), Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections, as modified by the EEA.

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

  • The use of renewables in the pan-European region is projected to increase, mainly because of the contribution of OECD Europe, where the share of renewables in total energy consumption is projected to more than double between 2004 and 2030, providing government policies adopted and enhanced by mid-2006 are implemented. Projections for the rest of Europe show a smaller increase (from 4 % in 2004 to 7 % in 2030) in the transition countries,  including EECCA (excluding Russia), SEE and some EU-10 countries, with the share in Russia increasing from 3 % in 2004 to 4 % in 2030.
  • OECD North America shows similar trends to OECD Europe but on a smaller scale. The share of renewables in total energy consumption is projected to increase from 6 to 9 % over the period, with the largest increase in the USA (from 4 % in 2004 to 8 % in 2030).
  • India is projected to remain the largest user of renewable energy with 26 % of renewables in its energy mix, but this will be considerably smaller than in 2004 (38 %). A decline in renewable use is also projected for China, from 16 % in 2004 to 10 % in 2030. These declines are because of the replacement of biomass for cooking and heating by modern commercial energy.
  • Biomass is projected to continue to dominate the renewables market in all the regions except the transition countries (including Russia), but its growth is projected to be the lowest and its share of total renewables to decline continuously. The use of hydropower is projected to increase significantly in India and China, increasing its share of total renewables; in the Eastern part of Europe it maintains the major share in spite of a small absolute decline. Other renewable energy technologies, including wind, solar, geothermal, wave and tidal energy, are projected to show the fastest increase in all world regions and increasingly affect the renewable energy mix.

* Projections are based on the IEA reference case scenario, which takes into account government policies enacted and adopted by mid-2006, even though many of these have not been fully implemented. Possible, potential or even unlikely future measures are not considered. The reference scenario is based on the UNSTAT projections of population growth (world average growth rate 1 % per year for 2004-2030) and OECD and International Monetary Fund projections for economic development (world average growth rate 3.4% per year for 2004-2030). It is assumed that energy-supply and energy use technologies become steadily more efficient, though at varying speeds for each fuel and each sector, depending on the potential for efficiency gains and the stage of technology development and commercialisation. New policies - excluded from the Reference scenario - would be needed to accelerate deployment of more efficient and cleaner technologies.

** Non-hydro renewables - solar, geothermal, wind, tide and wave energy.

 

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100