Renewable energy consumption - outlook from EEA

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-42-en
Also known as: Outlook 052
expired Created 08 Jan 2007 Published 08 Jun 2007 Last modified 04 Sep 2015, 06:59 PM
This content has been archived on 12 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
The renewables share in total primary energy consumption is expected to rise throughout the projection period from less than 7% in 2005 to 8% in 2010, 10% in 2020 and 12% in 2030. Nevertheless, under baseline conditions the EU target on renewable for 2010 (12% share of renewables) is expected not be achieved.
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Key messages

The renewables share in total primary energy consumption is expected to rise throughout the projection period from less than 7% in 2005 to 8% in 2010, 10% in 2020 and 12% in 2030. Nevertheless, under baseline conditions the EU target on renewable for 2010 (12% share of renewables) is expected not be achieved.

Are we switching to renewable energy sources to meet our energy consumption?

Structure of Energy Consumption in EU27 from 1990 to 2005 and projected structure to 2030

Note: N/A

Data source:

DG_TREN: Annex 2

Downloads and more info

Renewable energy consumption in EU27 from 1990 to 2005 and projected REC till 2030

Note: N/A

Data source:

DG_TREN: Annex 2

Downloads and more info

The renewables share in total primary energy consumption rises throughout the projection period from less than 7% in 2005 to 8% in 2010, 10% in 2020 and 12% in 2030. Nevertheless, under baseline conditions the EU target on renewable for 2010 (12%) will not be achieved. The renewables share in final energy demand rises by 4 percentage points between 2005 and 2020 reaching 12.7% in 2020. Achieving the 20% renewables target for 2020 will require a substantial additional effort compared with baseline developments, which includes only those measures implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006.

Renewables ranked first in terms of growth among other energy sources between 1990 and 2005 (3.47% per year, according to Eurostat accounting definitions) and are projected to continue to rank first in the future, growing by 2.67% per year between 2005 and 2030. This accounts for total 90% growth from today to 2030. In absolute terms they increase by 115 Mtoe from 2005 to 2030 accounting for nearly 60% of the increase of energy demand. RES use increases most in power generation, followed by transport and heating and cooling.

Energy from hydropower is projected to increase at a low rate (0.5% per year between 2005 and 2030), but solar energy is projected to grow much faster (10% per year) starting however from a very low level. The main drivers of the increasing use of renewables are wind energy (6.5% per year) and biomass-waste energy (2.67% per year). Their rapid development started already in 2000 and is shown to be higher in the medium term, followed by a slower pace in the long term.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

Definition

Renewable energy consumption is the ratio between the gross inland consumption of energy from renewable sources and the total (primary) gross inland energy consumption calculated for a calendar year.. It is calculated as the sum of the gross inland consumption of energy from renewable sources.

Model used

PRIMES

Ownership

European Environment Agency

Temporal coverage

1990 - 2030

Geographical coverage

EU-27: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Czech republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia

 

Units

The indicator is provided in relative (Mtoe) and absolute ways (share in percentage).

Renewable energy consumption is measured in million tones of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The share of the renewable energy sources in total energy consumption is also measured in the form of a percentage.


Policy context and targets

Context description

Global level

The Plan of Implementation adopted at WSSD is particulary concerning sustainable energy future. It aims to diversify  energy supply by developing more cost-effective energy technologies such as renewable energy technologies including hydro-technologies.

Pan-European level

 The Guidelines on Reforming Energy Pricing and Subsidies prepared jointly by the UNECE Committees on Environmental Policy and on Sustainable Energy (UNECE Guidelines) as a means of implementing the energy-related provisions of the Aarhus decisions have a number of ways how to meet increasing role of renewable energy within economic instruments and marketing mechanisms.

EU level

On 23 January 2008 the European Commission adopted the 'Climate Action and Renewable Energy' package. The Package sets a number of targets for EU member states with the ambition to achieve the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times including: GHG reduction of 20% compared to 1990 by 2020. (under a satisfactory global climate agreement this could be scaled up to a 30% reduction); 20% reduction in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency, an increase in renewable energy's share to 20% and a 10% share for sustainably produced biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport. With these goals in mind, each Member State will by June 30th 2010 submit a National Renewable Energy Action Plan to the Commission.

EECCA level

EECCA Strategy follows the proclamations of the Kiev Declaration. However, conceptions of the "renewable energy consumption" are still developing in EECCA regions and are not proclaimed clearly in the current policies.

Targets

Pan-European level

  • Increasing the share of renewable energy sources (published in Kiev Declaration in 2003).
  • Reforming energy prices and subsidies to promote renewable energy (UNECE Guidelines) EU level

EU level

  • increase the share of renewables in its overall energy mix to 20%, including a 10% biofuel target for transport by 2020


EECCA level

  • Mobilise investments for renewable energy (EECCA Strategy)

Links to other policy documents

Related policy documents

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

The indicator of the Renewable energy consumption is produced using the PRIMES model. The model covers the horizon from 1990 to 2030 with 5 years periods. A fundamental assumption in PRIMES is that producers and consumers both respond to changes in prices.

Overview of the PRIMES Model

PRIMES is a partial equilibrium model for the European Union energy system developed by, and maintained at, The National Technical University of Athens, E3M-Laboratory. The most recent version of the model used in the calculations covers each of the EU Member States, EU candidate countries and Neighbouring countries, uses Eurostat as the main data source, and is updated with 2000 as the base year. The PRIMES model is the result of collaborative research under a series of projects supported by the Joule programme of the Directorate General for Research of the European Commission.

The model determines the equilibrium by finding the prices of each energy form such that the quantity producers find best to supply match the quantity consumers wish to use. The equilibrium is static (within each time period) but repeated in a time-forward path, under dynamic relationships. The model is behavioural but also represents in an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement technologies. It reflects considerations about market economics, industry structure, energy/environmental policies and regulation. These are conceived so as to influence the market behaviour of energy system agents. The modular structure of PRIMES reflects a distribution of decision-making among agents that decide individually about their supply, demand, combined supply and demand, and prices. Then the market-integrating part of PRIMES simulates market clearing. PRIMES is a general purpose model. It conceived for forecasting, scenario construction and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium to long-term horizon. It is modular and allows either for a unified model use or for partial use of modules to support specific energy studies.

For more information see: http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/manuals/PRIMESld.pdf; http://www.e3mlab.ntua,gr/ and http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/DEFAULT.HTM

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.

Methodology references

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sets uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sources

Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Energy Energy

Tags:
energy | forward looking indicators
DPSIR: Response
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 052
Geographic coverage:
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100