Renewable energy consumption - outlook from EEA (Outlook 052) - Assessment published Jun 2006
Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B – Does it matter?)
- Outlook 052
Key policy question: Are we switching to renewable energy sources to meet our energy consumption?
Assessment EE_F11 2007
The indicated policy targets for renewable energy sources are not expected to be met by the EU-25 as a whole. However, renewables increase more than all other fuels in relative terms (more than doubling their contribution from current levels by the year 2030). In absolute terms they increase by 135 mtoe from 2000 to 2030 contributing nearly as much as natural gas towards the increase of energy demand.
Projected structure of total energy consumption in the EU 25
The energy consumption increase of 240 mtoe between 2000 and 2030 will be met by natural gas and renewables, which are the only energy sources that increase their market shares. The renewables share rises throughout the projection period from less than 6% in 2000 to 8% in 2010, to over 10% in 2020 and to 12% in 2030. Nevertheless, under baseline conditions the EU target on renewables for 2010 will not be achieved and meeting the 20% target under discussion for renewables will require almost a doubling of the share compared with the baseline development.
Solid fuels continue to decline strongly so that their use becomes more and more concentrated on some heavy industries. Renewables almost double their contribution - however from a rather small basis in final demand encompassing both traditional uses, such as wood combustion, but also solar water heating and biofuels in transport. Higher deployment of biofuels is the major driving force for greater renewables penetration in final demand (as distinct from renewables use for power generation, where hydro and wind are established sources with a great potential for further wind penetration).
Assessment was based on the report "European Energy and Transport: Trends to 2030" (update 2005) (some trends is recalculated a bit)
Input data to PRIMES model - structure of energy consumtpion and structure of activity variables - output from EUROSTAT data
Output data from PRIMES - Gross inland energy consumption (renewable energy forms module) - output from PRIMES model
provided by Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
Input data to PRIMES - macro-economic data: demographics, antional accounts, sectoral activity and income variables - output from EUROSTAT data
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