Real change in transport prices by mode (TERM 020) - Assessment published Jan 2011
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- 15 Sep 2010 - Real change in transport prices by mode (TERM 020) - Assessment published Sep 2010
- 28 Oct 2005 - Real change in transport price by mode
- 28 Jun 2004 - Real change in transport price by mode
- 01 Jun 2001 - Real change in transport price by mode
- 01 Jun 2001 - Real change in transport price by mode
Transport (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A – What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- TERM 020
Key policy question: Are passenger transport prices increasing at a higher rate than consumer prices? Are transport prices givin appropriate signals to transport users?
On average over the period 1998 to 2009, passenger transport prices have increased at a higher rate than consumer prices. However, in 1998, 2001 and now again in 2009, the relative volatility of the transport market has been highlighted, as overall transport prices fell at a faster rate than consumer prices. This is primarily due to significant drop in the average crude oil price between 2008 and 2009, which led to reductions in fuel prices. In particular, 2009 saw a decline in prices for air passenger transport and the operation of personal transport equipment, both of which increased in the previous year. In addition, the purchase price of motor cars continued the downward trend that has been consistent over the past decade. For freight transport prices, no EU-wide data exists, but as an example UK road freight prices have increased by a small amount over this period; transport of goods into the UK by sea have continually declined as economies of scale continue to take effect (larger ships travelling longer distances).
Real price indices of passenger transport based on a fixed transport product in the EU 25 Member States (2005=100)
Note: Real change in passenger and freight transport prices by mode, relative to average consumer prices (CP00). Data for entire EU-27 are available. However, very low consumer price indices in Romania and Bulgaria prior to their accession distort the weighted average and hence have been excluded.
Eurostat - Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices, Economy and finance (data)/Prices/Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP)/ Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (2005=100) – Annual Data (Average Index and rate of change).
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=0,1136173,0_45570701&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL [accessed 2 September 2010]
Prices are relatively easy to measure and compare over time, as long as the product or service in question stays the same. However, there are variations that take place over time that can affect the reliability of the comparison. For example, people tend not to purchase the same cars as ten years ago, and don’t use the same package of transport services (price/quality) as previously.
Therefore, only limited conclusions about trends in transport prices can be drawn. Most care should be taken when interpreting the prices related to the purchasing of cars and air travel prices. The price and quality characteristics of these products have changed the most during the recent years. For example, in air transport, an increasing share of travellers are choosing low-cost carriers that offer less service for lower prices.
On average over the last five years, transport price indices for the EU-25 Member States show that real (inflation adjusted) passenger transport prices have increased, making transport increasingly expensive in comparison with other consumer goods and services. However, in 2009 – potentially driven by the recession and a significant drop in the price of crude oil – falls in car purchase prices, aviation travel and operation of personal transport equipment have contributed to the first year-on-year decrease in overall transport prices since 2002. Differences appear between countries and modes.
Vehicle purchase prices have steadily fallen in relation to average consumer prices, making it easier for people to afford a car. This may, probably in combination with rising real incomes, have been an important driving force behind the increased vehicle ownership in the EU (see TERM32 Size and Composition of the Vehicle Fleet). Increased vehicle ownership is the primary driver behind increased choice of cars as a transport mode. This often leads to increased transport demand and subsequent environmental pressures as the costs for vehicle use are relatively low and many cost items are fixed (e.g. depreciation, insurance and holder’s tax). Similar trends are seen in the newer Member States as greater affordability of car purchases is even more pronounced. However, the effect of the availability of cheaper passenger cars is probably smaller than depicted, as people do not tend to purchase the same types of cars as ten years ago. Instead, households may purchase larger and more luxurious cars, spending an even greater share of their income on vehicle purchase than before (see TERM24 – Expenditures on Personal Mobility). However, the impact of the recession from 2008 has led to a significant reduction in overall car sales and a reduction in the gap in price between new and used cars. This is because dealers are reducing the prices of new cars to stimulate demand and people are hanging onto their existing car for longer, reducing the supply of used cars to the market which has driven up prices.
In the past, rises in the price indices for air travel have not been regarded as representative due to the growing market share of low-cost airlines and greater competition. The fall in air transport price between 2008 and 2009 is likely to be due in part to the significant fall in crude oil price over the same period, and potentially also due to airlines reducing prices to encourage sales in the recession. The rising real cost of travelling by rail, in contrast, has risen steadily since 2000, and at an ever increasing rate. One possible cause for this rise is the increasing share of high-speed rail in European transport; since 2000 the share of high-speed services in passenger rail travel in the EU-27 has increased by 50%, to nearly a quarter in 2008 (European Commission, 2010). Since an increasing proportion of passenger rail (especially high-speed) is electric-powered, prices are less closely tied to the price of crude oil.
Specific policy question: Are freight transport prices increasing?
Real Price UK Freight Price Indices (2005=100)
Note: Case study of the United Kingdom: prices for freight transport on commercial ferries, by road and by sea between 1998 and 2009
UK National Statistics, National Statistics/Services Producer Prices Index (experiemental)/Q1 2009 Data. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=15358, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/sppi0810.pdf [accessed 2 September 2010]
Little information is available regarding freight transport prices. Using a case study of the United Kingdom, prices for freight transport on commercial ferries and by road have increased over the period 1998 to 2009. Prices for freight transported by sea, however, have in general declined over this period (see Figure 2). The cost decreases for water transport are largely a result of economies of scale (larger ships and longer distances). It is not completely clear what drove the increase in price from 2007 for road transport and commercial vehicle ferry transport when fuel prices have decreased due to the recession in 2008-9. However, it seems likely this could be due to the significant relative weakening of the GB pound against the US dollar in this period in combination with duty increases.
Transport statistics (Eurostat)
provided by Eurostat - Statistical Office of the European Union (ESTAT)
UK Freight Prices
More information about this indicator
See this indicator specification for more details.