Passenger transport demand

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-35-en
Also known as: CSI 035 , TERM 012
expired Created 05 Nov 2013 Published 12 Dec 2013 Last modified 04 Sep 2015, 07:00 PM
Note: new version is available!
Topics: ,
This content has been archived on 18 Dec 2014, reason: Other (New version data-and-maps/indicators/passenger-transport-demand-version-2/assessment-4 was published)
Between 2010 and 2011, passenger transport demand in the EU-28 (without Croatia) increased by nearly 1 %, reaching a new all-time high, mainly attributed to a 10 % increase in aviation. Demand steadily increased between 1995 and 2009, but at a slower rate than GDP. The largest increases have been in air (66 %) and car (23 %) demand between 1995 and 2011. However, the economic recession led to a decline in 2009 and 2010 (0.1 %). The car dominates the land passenger transport share at 76 %, followed by air (9 %) bus and coach (8 %) and rail (6 %).  Croatia experienced a 16 % increase in land passenger transport over the period 2001 to 2011. Land passenger demand, for the non-EU EEA Member States, also showed high growth. In particular, Turkey and Iceland at 53 % and 21 % respectively, compared to 7 % for the EU-28. Regarding the modal split, Switzerland’s rail share has increased over the past decade, being around 18 % in 2011, by far the highest value within the EEA-33. Correspondingly, the share for car in Switzerland is below the EEA-33 average. Turkey has the highest modal share of bus and coach use within the EEA-33 although it declined from 60 % in 1995 to 44 % in 2011. Iceland and Norway have car shares well above the EEA-33 average at 89 % and 88 % respectively.

Key messages

Between 2010 and 2011, passenger transport demand in the EU-28 (without Croatia) increased by nearly 1 %, reaching a new all-time high, mainly attributed to a 10 % increase in aviation. Demand steadily increased between 1995 and 2009, but at a slower rate than GDP. The largest increases have been in air (66 %) and car (23 %) demand between 1995 and 2011. However, the economic recession led to a decline in 2009 and 2010 (0.1 %). The car dominates the land passenger transport share at 76 %, followed by air (9 %) bus and coach (8 %) and rail (6 %). 

Croatia experienced a 16 % increase in land passenger transport over the period 2001 to 2011. Land passenger demand, for the non-EU EEA Member States, also showed high growth. In particular, Turkey and Iceland at 53 % and 21 % respectively, compared to 7 % for the EU-28. Regarding the modal split, Switzerland’s rail share has increased over the past decade, being around 18 % in 2011, by far the highest value within the EEA-33. Correspondingly, the share for car in Switzerland is below the EEA-33 average. Turkey has the highest modal share of bus and coach use within the EEA-33 although it declined from 60 % in 1995 to 44 % in 2011. Iceland and Norway have car shares well above the EEA-33 average at 89 % and 88 % respectively.

Is passenger transport demand being decoupled from economic growth?

Passenger transport volume and modal split within the EU

Chart
Data sources: Explore chart interactively
Table
Data sources: Explore chart interactively

Total passenger transport demand (pkm) including road, rail, air and sea in the EU-28 countries (excl. Croatia) increased by 11 % between 2000 and 2011. However, an estimate based on 2012 fuel consumption data suggests that passenger transport demand may have declined between 2011 and 2012. In all non-EU EEA Member States, growth in road and rail pkm was above EU-28 average. In Turkey, pkm in 2011 was almost 1.5 times higher than in 2000. In Iceland, pkm grew by 27 % and in Norway and Switzerland by between 17 % and 18 %, respectively.

In terms of land based passenger transport, from 2000 to 2011, growth in the EU-15 countries was 6 % and in the EU-13 30 %. However, from 2008 onwards there has been little land passenger transport growth, across all modes, both in the EU-15 and the EU-13 countries. In terms of contributions from different modes, there are also differences between the EU-15 and the EU-13 countries.

Car passenger km demand in the EU-15 increased by only 5 % over the 2000 to 2011 period, and actually fell 1.4 % between 2009 and 2011. This reflects the stabilisation of car demand in Western Europe (and the United States) which has been the subject of much research.

In contrast car passenger km in the EU-13 rose by 53 % between 2000 and 2011. This strong growth is due to the much lower levels of car ownership and use compared to the EU-15 at the start of this period, combined with strong GDP growth. Accession to the EU has also made it easier to import second hand vehicles from neighbouring countries.

Overall, car journeys are by far the dominant mode accounting for over 80 % of EU-15 and EU-13 land passenger kilometres, and 73 % of all internal EU-28 passenger transport kilometres, including land, air and sea (excluding Croatia). In Norway and Iceland, the car’s modal share is close to 90 % of land passenger transport.

Regarding growth in rail and bus passenger demand there are strong differences among EEA Member States. For rail, growth was 17 % for the EU-15 over the 2000 to 2011 time period with France and the UK accounting for the greatest increases in rail pkm. In contrast, in the EU-13 rail pkm decreased by 27 % over the same period. The modal share of rail in passenger land transport declined continuously, from 13 % in 1995, to 10 % in 2000 to 5 % in 2011. Thus, despite the historically prominent role of train travel in Eastern Europe the modal share of rail transport in the EU-13 is now significantly lower than in the EU-15. This trend needs to be reversed if the EU’s Transport White Paper target of the majority of medium distance (intercity) passenger transport going by rail in 2050 is to be met. Switzerland has the highest rail mode share in the EEA-33. It increased from around 14 % to around 18 % between 2000 and 2011.

EU-15 countries have invested heavily in high-speed rail (HSR) since 2000, increasing track capacity by over 150 %, resulting in an increase in passenger-km by HSR of almost 80 % (DG MOVE, 2012). Despite the growth in pkm the modal share of rail transport (relative to total land transport) in the EU-15 has remained fairly stable at around 7 % over the past decade (6.7 % in 2000 to 7.3 % in 2011).  

For bus travel, similar patterns were seen: in the EU-15, the share of pkm by bus and coach remained fairly stable at 8 % to 9 % over the 2000 to 2011 time period while the modal share of bus and coach transport in the EU-13 strongly declined from 22 % in 1995 to 11 % in 2011. Turkey’s 44 % mode share of busses and coaches is by far the highest among the EEA-33. Total pkm by bus and coach in Turkey have increased although the much faster increase in car pkm led to a drop in the relative share which was still at 60 % in 1995.

Air transport is the sector with the greatest growth over the period 2000 to 2011, increasing by 25 % in the EU-28 (excl. Croatia; DG MOVE, 2013). Aviation in the EU showed annual increases of between 3.5 to 4 % until the recent economic recession. However, total passenger kilometres fell by nearly 9 % between 2007 and 2009. In 2011, it saw strong growth again and reached similar levels to 2007. However, in 2012, the number of flight movements in the EU-28 (excl. Croatia) decreased by 3 % and are forecast to decrease by a further 0.5 % to 3.6 % in 2013. It therefore seems likely that air passenger kilometres will also have dropped. However, despite the recent slow-down, positive growth rates of between around 1 % and 3.5 % per year are forecast from 2014 onwards.

At the EU-28 level (excl. Croatia) GDP and passenger transport demand grew at similar rates. However, developments in the EU-15 are quite different to the EU-13. In the EU-15, greater relative decoupling occurred for car use, with GDP growing faster than car transport demand. This is linked, in part, to modal shift – demand for rail grew faster than GDP. In contrast, in the EU-13, there has been little or even negative decoupling with car pkm and GDP growing at similar rates over the past 15 years. However, while EU-13 GDP fell between 2008 and 2009 car pkm kept increasing. Therefore, in recent years, between 2008 and 2011, car pkm per Euro of GDP in the EU-13 was higher than during the late 1990s.

Is public transport increasing as a proportion of total passenger transport?

Passenger transport modal split

Missing chart information, using default chart:
Passenger transport modal split

Note: N/A

Explore chart interactively

Passenger transport modal split

Chart
Data sources: Explore chart interactively
Table
Data sources: Explore chart interactively

Between 2000 and 2011, the EU-13 converged towards the EU-15 in its modal split. This entailed a strong shift from buses and railways to cars. The share of cars in passenger kilometres in the EU-13 is now similar to that in the EU-15. In the EU-13, in particular, the decline of rail and bus passenger demand in both relative and absolute terms is remarkable. Total rail passenger kilometres in the EU-13 have fallen by a third over the past 15 years and the share of rail transport is now lower than in the EU-15. Bus passenger kilometres in the EU-13 have also fallen by over 20 % in the same period.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

'Passenger transport demand' is defined as the number of pkm travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland passenger transport includes transport by passenger car, bus and coach and train.

'Modal split' is defined as the proportion of total pkm allocated to different transport modes every year.

The 'decoupling indicator' is defined as the annual changes in the ratio of pkm (inland modes) to GDP (in constant prices) growth. 

 

Units

The unit used to express passenger transport volume is the passenger-kilometre (pkm), which represents one passenger travelling a distance of 1 km. It is based on transport by car, bus and coach and train. 

Gross domestic product (GDP) is expressed in constant euros, indexed to the year 2005.

Passenger transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2005 = 100). The ratio of the former to the latter is indexed to the year t 1 (i.e. annual decoupling/intensity changes) in order to observe changes in the annual intensity of passenger transport demand relative to economic growth (GDP). For the oldest indicators (i.e. before 2010), passenger transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2000 = 100).


Policy context and targets

Context description

The EU has set itself the objective of decoupling economic growth from passenger transport demand in order to create a more sustainable transport system. This decoupling has been a central theme in EU transport policy and is intended to minimise the negative impacts of transport.

Targets

In this indicator, the policy target to significantly decouple transport growth from GDP growth in order to reduce the negative environmental effects of transport and congestion is considered.

Related policy documents

  • 10917/06
    Review of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (EU SDS): Renewed Strategy, by the Council of the European Union, No. 10917/06.
  • A sustainable future for transport
    In 2001, the Commission issued a White Paper setting an agenda for the European transport policy throughout 2010. This programme was updated in the mid-term review of 2006. Approaching the end of the 10-year period, it is time to look further ahead and prepare the ground for later policy developments.
  • COM (2001) 264 final
    A sustainable Europe for a better world: A European Union strategy for sustainable development. Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. COM (2001) 264 final.
  • Keep Europe Moving: Sustainable Mobility for our Continent
    European Commission, 2006. Keep Europe Moving: Sustainable Mobility for our Continent. Mid-term review of the EC’s 2001 Transport White Paper.
  • Transport White paper 2011
    Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area - Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system
  • WHITE PAPER European transport policy for 2010: time to decide
    The need for integration of transport in sustainable development

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

In order to measure the decoupling of passenger demand from economic growth, the volume of passenger transport relative to GDP (i.e. the intensity) is calculated.

Methodology for gap filling

No need for gap filling

Methodology references

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

To understand whether or not passenger demand is being decoupled from economic growth, the intensity of passenger transport demand relative to changes in real GDP is analysed. A reduction in intensity should signal the relative decoupling of transport demand from economic growth.

A decoupling indicator compares pressures on the environment with changes in the relevant economical variables, to which the environmental pressures are causally linked. This indicator compares the growth in pkm as a proxy of the pressures on the environment caused by transport. It is considered a good proxy; however, it is known to be inaccurate as pkm values in isolation do not fully explain the environmental pressures. 

 

Data sets uncertainty

Figures on pkm travelled by air are available as an EU-28 aggregate only. Air pkm are a provisional estimate for domestic flights and flights between EU countries. Figures for car, bus and rail travel are available separately for all EU-28 Member States. The sources used by the European Commission (DG-MOVE) include national statistics, estimates, the International Transport Forum and Eurostat.

Rationale uncertainty

Even if two countries have the same passenger transport intensity, or show the same trend over time, there could be important environmental differences between them. The link to environmental impact has to be complemented on the basis of the energy consumption and fuels used to satisfy passenger demand, and the technology used, in addition to the new infrastructure-related impacts.

Data sources

Generic metadata

Topics:

Transport Transport (Primary topic)

Tags:
passengers | soer2010 | thematic assessments | consumption | transport demand | passenger transport | modal split | transport
DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CSI 035
  • TERM 012
Dynamic
Temporal coverage:
1995-2012
Geographic coverage:
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Cinzia Pastorello

EEA Management Plan

2013 2.9.2 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Frequency of updates

Updates are scheduled once per year
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100