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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Passenger transport demand / Passenger transport demand (CSI 035/TERM 012) - Assessment published Jan 2011

Passenger transport demand (CSI 035/TERM 012) - Assessment published Jan 2011

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Generic metadata

Topics:

Transport Transport (Primary topic)

Tags:
passengers | soer2010 | thematic assessments | consumption | transport indicators | transport demand | transport
DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CSI 035
  • TERM 012
Dynamic
Temporal coverage:
1995-2008
Geographic coverage:
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom
 
Contents
 

Key policy question: Is passenger transport demand being decoupled from economic growth?

Key messages

Between 2007 and 2008 passenger transport demand in the EEA-32 declined, for the first time in the 13 years displayed, most likely due to the impacts of the global economic recession. However, this does little to change the long-term trend; overall passenger transport demand has grown by over a fifth since 1995. There is continued evidence to suggest a decoupling between passenger transport demand and GDP in the EEA-32. However, latest estimates for air passenger transport within the EU-27 indicate that demand has been growing at a much faster rate than any other mode of passenger transport.

Key assessment

Figure 1 shows that over the past decade, the growth in demand for passenger transport has been slower on average than the growth in the economy. Between 2007 and 2008, passenger transport demand fell for the first time in the 13 years displayed. However, this is an exceptional case, likely due to the global economic recession, and the main trend is still that passenger transport continues to grow. Despite the observed decoupling between passenger demand and GDP, the 20% growth in demand between 1995 and 2008 makes it increasingly challenging to stabilise or reduce the environmental impacts of transport. In addition, the apparent decoupling does not account for aviation (see footnote 1). Figure 2 shows  provisional estimates for intra-EU passenger air travel demand for the EU-27. It suggests that growth in the decade to 2008 has been greater than in any other mode (37%) and in 2008 could add as much as 10% to the overall demand for passenger transport. Were this trend to apply to the EEA-32, decoupling figures would reduce significantly. However, as with transport overall in Figure 1, demand fell between 2007 and 2008, by 2%. This is a greater decrease than that from land-based modes (where demand decreased by 0.2% overall), suggesting that aviation demand is more sensitive to economic stresses than other modes.

In the European Union, passenger transport demand has followed two distinct trends over the last decade that continues in 2008. Overall, land passenger transport is growing at around twice the rate in the EU-12 as in the EU-15. However, in the EU-12 demand for transport by rail and bus are falling, with car demand increasing at a much faster rate. This is contrasted in the EU-15, where passenger car transport demand is growing at a much slower rate overall (and indeed fell in 2008), but where there is continued growth in demand for rail and bus travel. Private car transport accounts for the majority of demand in all EEA member countries.

Despite an overall fall of 0.7% in passenger car kilometres in the EEA between 2007 and 2008, more than half the member states (17) experienced growth in demand. In the European Union, the EU-12 experienced a growth of 7% over this period, whilst the EU-15 saw a decline of 2%. The five Member States with the largest demand for passenger transport – Germany, France, Italy, the UK and Spain – all experienced a reduction in levels of demand between 2007 and 2008. However Poland, who in 2008 has the sixth-largest passenger transport demand, saw their demand grow by over 14% in the same period.

Specific policy question: Is public tranport increasing its share of passenger transport?

Passenger transport modal split

Note: Passenger transport modal split, excluding Liechtenstein

Data source:

Eurostat - Statistical Office of the European Communities. Transport demand by mode. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/transport/data/database [accessed 10 September 2010]


 

Downloads and more info

Specific assessment

In the last decade, bus demand grew by 8% in the EEA-32. This was driven mainly by EU-15 Member States, with an increase of 10%, contrasted by a 4% drop in demand from the EU-12 (possibly in part due to competition with passenger car travel as car ownership levels increase). Romania, however, bucks this trend amongst the new EU Member States, with continued strong growth in demand (14% in 2007/08). This compares to an overall rise of just 0.4% in the EU-15, and a negligible decrease (less than 0.1%) in the EU-12 in 2008.

Demand for rail passenger transport increased by 3.5% in the EEA-32 between 2007 and 2008, and 19% in the last decade. However, there was a marked contrast in trend between the EU-15 and EU-12, with the former growing by nearly 30% in the ten years to 2008, and the latter shrinking by around 20%.

Passenger car transport accounted for a large proportion of inland passenger transport among the EEA-32 (Figure 3, excludes Lichtenstein). Nine of the EEA-32 Member States meet over 85% of their passenger transport demand by car, and 20 have a car share of over 80%. Cars clearly remain the dominant mode of passenger transport amongst Europeans.  Lithuania has the highest share of passenger car transport in the EEA-32, at just over 90%. Lithuania has also experienced the largest growth in passenger car demand of any Member State, nearly 200% in the last decade. This means that, despite relatively modest changes in other modes, it has the largest 10-year growth in passenger demand of any Member State. This is accompanied by one of the strongest increases in GDP over the same period. These trends suggest that it may therefore be that the rapid growth in the economy has led to an increased demand for, and ability to afford, transport that is most easily met in the short term by the private car.

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Cinzia Pastorello

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 2.9.2 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Frequency of updates

Updates are scheduled once per year in October-December (Q4)
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100