GHG emissions - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 032) - Assessment published Jun 2009

Indicator definition

Definition: This indicator illustrates the projected trends in transport related greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions (total) refer to the sum of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perflourocarbons (PFCs), hydroflourocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), weighted using their 100-year global warming potentials.

Model used: IEA/SMP

Ownership:  World Business Council for Sustainable Development 

Temporal coverage: 1990 - 2050

Geographical coverage: ^{OECD Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom; OECD North America: USA, Canada, Mexico; Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan Eastern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia and Montenegro; India; China}

Units

Megatonnes of CO2-equivalent

Policy context and targets

Context description

Over a decade ago, most countries joined an international treaty -- the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) -- to begin to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. Recently, a number of nations have approved an addition to the treaty: the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol, an international and legally binding agreement to reduce greenhouse gases emissions world wide, entered into force on February 16th 2005. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol shares the Convention's objective, principles and institutions, but significantly strengthens the Convention by committing Annex I Parties to individual, legally-binding targets to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

To date most countries in the Pan-European region ratified the Kyoto Protocol, notably:  Annex I: Belarus, Croatia,  Russian Federation, Ukraine, EU 27, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstien, Switzerland. Non-Annex I countries: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazhakhstan, Former Yugoslavian Republic Macedonia, Montenegro, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Tajikistan, Turkey,  Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

31 countries and the EEC are required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below levels specified for each of them in the treaty.  The Individual Targets for Annex I Parties are listed in the Kyoto Protocol's Annex B. These add up to a total cut in greenhouse-gas emissions of at least 5% from 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008-2012.

The EU Commission's Progress Report towards achieving the Kyoto objectives in the EU and the individual Member States is required under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (Council Decision 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community GHG emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol).

Transport related policy context

EU context

The Kyoto Protocol does not foresee a specific reduction target for transport. As taxes, efficiency, fuel type, loading, all have influences on the resulting emissions from transport policies focus on these issues. The application of emission trading is in discussion for air transport. At the same time several European policies and strategies focus on the reduction of GHG emissions from transport. The reduction of greenhouse gases and pollutant emissions, the security of energy supply and the balanced use of the various transport modes are the strategic priorities stated in the White Paper on the Common Transport Policy (CTP) "European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide". Moreover, all of these declared as priority research themes with a contribution to make to the implementation of the transport policy recommended in the White Paper.

EECCA policy context
Implement transport strategies for sustainable development in order to       ...reduce greenhouse gas  missions, including through the development of better vehicle technologies that are more environmentally sound, affordable and socially acceptable (EECCA strategy)

Targets

General targets related to the reduction of GHG emissions

Pan European level
The majority of the countries in the Pan European region and the EEC are required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below levels specified for each of them in the Kyoto Protocol.  The individual targets for Annex I Parties are listed in the Kyoto Protocol's Annex B. These should add up to a total cut in greenhouse-gas emissions of at least 5% from 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008-2012.

EU level

For the EU-15 Member States, the targets are those set out in Council Decision 2002/358EC in which Member States agreed that some countries would be allowed to increase their emissions, within limits, provided these are offset by reductions in others.

The EU-15 Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012 is a reduction of 8 % from 1990 levels for the basket of six greenhouse gases. For the new Member States, the candidate countries, other EEA member countries, and other Annex 1 countries the targets are included in the Kyoto Protocol.

Overview of national Kyoto targets (reduction from base year levels): (reduction from base year levels) can be found here)

The post 2012 climate regime will look different compared to Kyoto. In March 2007, the Council of the European Union decided that the EU would make a firm independent commitment to achieving at least a 20 % reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990. On 23 January 2008 the European Commission put forward a package of proposals that will deliver on the European Union's ambitious commitments to fight climate change and promote renewable energy up to 2020 and beyond. In December 2008 the European Parliament and Council reached an agreement on the package that will help transform Europe into a low-carbon economy and increase its energy security. The Package sets a number of targets for EU member states with the ambition to achieve the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times including: GHG reduction of 20% compared to 1990 by 2020 (under a satisfactory global climate agreement this could be scaled up to a 30% reduction); 20% reduction in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency, an increase in renewable energy's share to 20% and a 10% share for sustainably produced biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport.

Targets related to GHG emissions from transport sector

EU

No targets for transport emissions of GHGs have been agreed for the 15 old EU member countries or any other country groupings.
The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February 16th, 2005. The Kyoto Protocol target 2008-2012 for EEA member countries have been individually set, additionally the 15 old EU member countries have a common target of -8 % from the base year levels for the basket of six GHGs not controlled by the Montreal protocol. Malta, Cyprus and Turkey do not have a Kyoto target.
In October 2005, the Commission launched ECCP (European Climate Change Programme) II, which focused on reviewing the ECCP I and on exploring new policy areas. Specific areas for which additional emission reduction measures for 2008-2012 are being developed include aviation, and CO₂ and cars.
The alternative fuels policy aims to achieve a 20 % substitution of conventional automotive fuels by alternative fuels for road transportation by 2020. One outcome of this policy is the Directive 2003/30/EC on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable, which defines a set of measures to promote the use of biofuels. In January 2008, it was announced that the EU is rethinking its biofuels programme due to environmental and social concerns and new guidelines must ensure that EU targets are not damaging.
The Commission also adopted a strategy to reduce CO₂ emissions from passenger cars and improve fuel economy, which was endorsed by the Council in 1996. It aims at achieving an average CO₂ emission figure for new passenger cars of 120 g CO₂/km by 2005, and 2012 at the latest.
The 'Eurovignette' Directive focuses on freight transport, which is currently under revision in order to reflect the need to internalise external costs (traffic-based air pollution, traffic-based noise pollution, and congestion) in road freight transport in harmony with the 'polluter pays' principle.

EECCA
Implement transport strategies for sustainable development in order to       ...reduce greenhouse gas  missions, including through the development of better vehicle technologies that are more environmentally sound, affordable and socially acceptable ( EECCA Strategy)

Related policy documents

• Climate and Energy package 2009
• COM (2001) 370 final. European transport policy for 2010.
  WHITE PAPER European transport policy for 2010: time to decideCOM (2001) 370 final
• Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002
  Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002 concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the joint fulfilment of commitments thereunder.
• Directive 2003/30/EC, use of biofuels and renewable fuels
  Promotion of the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels for transport. Directive 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels for transport.
• Greenhouse gas monitoring mechanism
  Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol
• Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
  Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; adopted at COP3 in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Data for the projected green house gas by the three pan-European regions is extracted from the IEA/SMP Transport Spreadsheet model.

The model tracks greenhouse gas emissions from all vehicle types, both from vehicles themselves and "upstream" emissions (during fuel production and transport to refuelling sites).

The approach is straightforward:to estimate CO2 emissions from vehicles, a fuel consumption by vehicle type is multiplied on coefficient for CO2 per unit fuel consumption.

For upstream emissions, factors for CO2-equivalent emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4 are applied.

For vehicles, IEA's CO2 emissions factors are used, except where unavailable (see table p. 76). For upstream ("well-to-tank") emissions, factors are taken from the study by GM/LBST (source). The same coefficients are used for all regions and years. These are shown in the second table on the   p. 77 of the model documentation.

Overview of the SMP Spreadsheet Model

(The flowchart on the page 4 of the IEA/SMP model spreadsheet privides an example of the logic behind the model on the basis of light-duty vehicles(e.g. automobiles)).
The IEA/SMP Transport Spreadsheet Model is designed to handle all transport modes and most vehicle types. It produces projections of vehicle stocks, travel, energy use and other indicators through 2050 for a reference case and for various policy cases and scenarios. It is designed to have some technology-oriented detail and to allow fairly detailed bottom-up modeling. The SMP spreadsheet model 1.60 is the most recent version and is available for a more detailed inspection (and use, though no user guide has been prepared and there are no plans, at this time, of providing on-going usersupport for the model. A very basic outline of how to use the model is provided in the first sheet of the model spreadsheet).
The model does not include any representation of economic relationships (e.g., elasticities) nor does it track costs. Rather, it is an "accounting" model, anchored by the "ASIF" identity:

• Activity (passenger and freight travel)
• Structure (travel shares by mode and vehicle type)
• Intensity (fuel efficiency)
• Fuel type = fuel use by fuel type (and CO2 emissions per unit fuel use).

Various indicators are tracked and characterized by coefficients per unit travel, per vehicle or per unit fuel use as appropriate.
The modes, technologies, fuels, regions and basic variables are included in the spreadsheet model. Not all technologies or variables are covered for all modes. Apart from energy use, the model tracks emissions of CO2, and CO2-equivalent GHG emissions (from vehicles as well as upstream), PM, NOx, HC, CO and Pb. Projections of safety (fatalities and injuries) are also incorporated.
The most detailed segment of the model covers light-duty vehicles. The flow chart  on the page 4 of the  Model documentation provides an overview of the key linkages in the light-duty vehicle section of the model. For other passenger modes (such as buses, 2-wheelers), the approach is similar, however there is no stock model. Stocks are projected directly; vehicle sales needed to achieve these stocks is not currently tracked.
Overview of the projections, regions and viraibales used by the IEA/SMP transport spreadsheet model is peresented in the table below:

 Sectors / Modes
 
 
 

 Vehicle
 Technologies/
 Fuels
 

 Regions
 
 
 

 Variables
 
 
 

Key model assumptions for the reference case

The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends in various important indicators and other variables. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections, income projections and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations for other future changes in trends, such as saturations in vehicle ownership, are also incorporated.

In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003. An exception to this is where there is clear evidence of what might be called "policy trajectories" - future policy actions that are either explicit or implicit in other trends. For example, a clear trend is emerging in the developing world to adopt vehicle emissions standards of a form similar to those already implemented in OECD countries. It is assumed that this "policy trajectory" will continue in the future. In contrast, no such policy trajectory is evident for reduced light-duty vehicle (LDV) fuel consumption; we therefore only incorporate existing fuel consumption programmes through the year they currently end; we assume a return after that date to historical (non-policy-driven) trends in fuel consumption.

In general, the model tried to avoid introducing significant changes in trends after 2030. We run the trends assumed to exist in 2030 out to 2050 in order to see the net effects and directions in that latter year of actions and events that often occurred years earlier.

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Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.

Methodology references

• The IEA/SMP Transport Spreadsheet Model The model was produced in a framework of the Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) implemented by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and International Energy Agency. Detailed description of the methodology used for calculation of GHG emissions is presented on the page 76. Results of the reference case are discussed on the page 10.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Uncertainties related to indicator calculation

All data should be based on movements on national territory, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle. It is unknown what the assumptions are regarding movement of the transport when the assigned regions.  

Uncertainties related to IEA/SMP transport model

The model does not include any representation of economic relationships (e.g.,
elasticities) nor does it track costs. The IEA has a cost-optimization model capable of this, the ETP model, but this model was not employed in the SMP's work due to its lack of transparency and its complexity.

Uncertainties related to use of outlooks

to be filled

Data sets uncertainty

The table below provides a simplified picture of what types of variables and the level of
detail modelled for each major transport mode in the IEA/SMP transport spreadsheet model. As can be seen in the next table, there is a range of coverage by mode, as well as variations in the quality of the data available (indicated by x or i). In general, there is better data available for light-duty vehicles than for other modes, though for non-OECD regions most data is quite poor, except for aggregate estimates of transport energy consumption. New vehicle characteristics are only tracked for light-duty vehicles; existing stock is used as the basic vehicle indicator for all other modes.

The reference case includes the modes and variables identified in the table below:

Modes and Variables Covered in the Reference Case Projection

 Auto
 
 
 

 Air
 
 
 

 Truck
 
 
 

 Frt
 Rail
 
 

 Pass
 Rail
 
 

 Buss
 
 
 

 Mini-
 bus
 
 

 2-3
 wheel
 
 

 Water
 
 
 

 OECD regions
 

 Non-OECD regions
 

Note: * = have data of fair to good reliability; i = have data but incomplete or of poor reliability; blank = have nothing or have not attempted to project. Note that data of fair reliability is available for energy use across all road vehicles in non-OECD countries, but breaking this out into various road modes (cars, trucks, buses, 2- wheelers) is difficult and relatively unreliable.
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Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified