GDP - outlook from OECD (Outlook 041) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- Outlook 041
Key policy question: What are GDP trends in the pan-European region?
In a no new policies scenario*, GDP is projected to continue to grow in absolute and per-capita terms in the whole pan-European region, more rapidly in the eastern parts, such as EECCA and SEE. Globally WEU, USA and Canada are projected to continue to have the highest GDP per capita. WEU will approach the levels of USA and Canada. However, the fastest-growing economies are expected to be China, India and EECCA. (Assessment is created in 2007)
*Projections are based on the baseline OECD scenario. The baseline is a no new policies scenario by design, without anticipating deliberate interventions requiring new or intensified policies in response to the projected developments. Population indicators were adopted from the most recently published UN
GDP projections, 2005 to 2030
Note: GDP=Gross Domestic Product
Based on OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2007b. OECD Environment Outlook (Analysis of environmental pressures and impacts of the baseline for the second OECD Environmental Outlook as developed by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2006).
Projected percentage change in GDP per capita from 2005 to 2030
Note: International comparisons
GDP: OECD Outlook (Analysis of environmental pressures and impacts of the baseline for the second OECD Environment Outlook). Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2006).
- GDP per capita is projected to increase globally, however at a quicker pace in EECCA, China, India and CEU. Although GPD per capita in WEU grows much more slowly (by 64 %) than in CEU (141 %) and EECCA (182 %), absolute values of GDP per capita in WEU in 2030 remains more than twice those in other European countries. The US is expected to have the highest GDP per capita in 2030, followed by Canada and WEU. China continues to be among the most impressively developing economies, with the highest increase in GDP per capita from 2000 to 2030 (more than 200 %). India stays below the world average, though with a large increase (169 %) from 2005 to 2030.
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