Forest fire danger (CLIM 035) - Assessment published Sep 2008

Justification for indicator selection

Wildfires are a serious threat to forests and ecosystems in Europe and climate is the most important driving force affecting fire potential changes over time (Flannigan et al., 2000). Although it is generally recognised that the occurrence of forest fires in Europe is due mainly to causes of an anthropogenic nature, the total burned area changes significantly from year to year largely because of weather conditions. Changes in fire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystem stability, with consequent direct and indirect economic losses. On other hand active forest and fire management practices can counteract the impacts of a changing climate to some extent.

Scientific references:

• References Camia, A.; Amatulli G.; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2008. Past and future trends of forest fire danger in Europe. EUR Technical Report (EUR 23124). Cannell, M. G. R.; Thornley, J. H. M.; Mobbs, D. C. and Friend, A. D., 1998. UK conifer forests may be growing faster in response to increased N deposition, atmospheric CO2 and temperature. Forestry 71: 277-296. Flannigan, M. D.; Amiro, B. D.; Logan, K. A.; Stocks, B. J. and Wotton, B. M., 2005. Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21st Century. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Springer 11: 847-859. Flannigan, M. D.; Stocks, B. J.; Wotton, B. M., 2000. Climate Change and Forest Fires. The Science of the Total Environment 262 (3): 221-229. San Miguel-Ayanz, J.; Carlson, J. D.; Alexander, M.; Tolhurst, K.; Morgan, G.; Sneeuwjagt, R. and Dudley, M., 2003. Current Methods to Assess Fire Danger Potential. In: Wildland Fire Danger Estimation and Mapping. The Role of Remote Sensing Data (E. Chuvieco, Ed.) World Scientific Publishing. Singapore, pp. 21-61. Van Wagner, C. E., 1987. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forestry Service, Ottawa, Ontario. Forestry Technical Report 35. 37 pp.