Final energy consumption - outlook from IEA (Outlook 011) - Assessment published Jun 2007
Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- Outlook 011
Key policy question: Are we using less final energy?
Aggregate global demand in final-use sectors is projected to grow by 1.4% per year from 2006 to 2030 - slightly slower than primary energy demand. The fastest growth is projected in non-OECD countries, while OECD Europe's growth in final energy consumption is expected to be the lowest pace. Industry demand increases everywhere, but fastest in the Middle East, India and China. The rate of growth in global transport energy demand slows considerably over the Outlook period.
In 2030, disparities in per capita energy consumption among regions are projected to remain stark. Russia and OECD countries are expected continue having significantly higher levels of final energy consumption per capita than in other world regions.
Global Final Energy Consumption 1990-2030
Global Final Energy Consumption 1990-2030: International Energy Agency
Percentage Change of Final Energy Demand from 2006 to 2030
Total primary energy demand, International Energy Agency
Final Energy Consumption by Sector in 1990, 2006 and 2030
Center for Environmental Systems Research
Final energy consumption per capita in 2006 and projected final energy consumption in 2030
Total Primary Energy Supply: International Energy Agency
Percentage change in total energy consumption per capita and Final energy consumption per capita from 2006 to 2030
Total Primary Energy Demand: International Energy Agency
Aggregate demand in final-use sectors is projected to grow by 1.4% per year from 2006 to 2030 - slightly slower than primary energy demand. FEC in India and China is expected to grow fastest (95% and 105% from 2006 to 2030) moving their the regional share in global final energy consumption in 2030 to 7% and 21% respectively as compared to 5% and 15% in 2006. Meanwhile OECD Europe's growth in FEC is projected to be slowest (10 % from 2006 to 2030) and its regional share is projected to decline from 17% in 2006 to 13% in 2030.
Industry demand grows more rapidly, at 1,8% per annum, overtaking transport before 2010 as the second-largest final-use sector, after the combined residential, services and agricultural sector. Industry demand increases everywhere, but fastest in the middle East and non-OECD Asia. The rate of growth in global transport energy demand slows considerably over the Outlook period, especially in OECD-Europe. It averages 1.5% per year on average in 2006 - 2030 compared with 2.3% in 1980-2006, largely as a result of improved fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet. Residential services and agriculture consumption grows at an average annual rate of 1.2%, slower than the rate of growth o 1.5% per year in 1980-2006, due to efficiency improvements and fuel Switching.
In 2030, disparities in per capita energy consumption among regions remain stark. China and India see a rapid increase in per-capita energy demand over the Outlook period thanks to a booming economy and slower population growth compared with African and other Asian countries. India's per capita energy use is only 0.9 toe in 2030, up from 0.5 toe in 2006. However the numbers are still fall behind OECD counties and Russia. Russia still has the highest per-capita energy consumption, at 7.0 toe, in 2030. Per-capita consumption increases rapidly from 1.4 toe in 2006 to 2.7 toe in 2030 in China.
In many countries around the world Total energy consumption rises as a rule faster than Final energy consumption. That is an indicator that inefficient technologies are used to fuel the growing energy demands. In China TEC increases with 84,28% over the projection period, while FEC only increases with 76,65%. India shows a TEC-FEC difference of 7,38% and Russia 4,71%. Globally the gap is estimated at 3,14%, as OECD-Europe and Eurasia manage to increase efficiencies and show FEC gaining against TEC by 4,01% and 2,48% respectively.
Input data to WEO model - technological developments
Input data to WEO model - fuel prices
Input data to WEO model - population
Input data to WEO model - economic growth
Input data to WEO model - electricity consumption
Input data to WEO model - electricity prices
Input data to WEO model - primary demand for fossil fuels
Output from WEO - Final energy consumption
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Contacts and ownership
EEA Contact InfoAnita Pirc Velkavrh
EEA Management Plan2010 (note: EEA internal system)
For references, please go to www.eea.europa.eu/soer or scan the QR code.
This briefing is part of the EEA's report The European Environment - State and Outlook 2015. The EEA is an official agency of the EU, tasked with providing information on Europe’s environment.
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