Final energy consumption - outlook from IEA (Outlook 011) - Assessment published Jun 2009
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A – What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- Outlook 011
Key policy question: Are we using less final energy?
If current technological trends continue and government policies that have been adopted are implemented*, world average total (TEC) and final (FEC) energy consumption per capita will increase by about 27.5 % between 2004 and 2030. The major part of this increase will come from China, India and the transition countries, which include Russia and other EECCA countries, SEE and some EU-10 countries.
In contrast to OECD Europe and North America, total energy consumption per capita is growing faster than final energy consumption per capita in Russia, India and China, reflecting the use of less efficient technologies, mostly for power generation.
Total energy consumption per capita and final energy consumption per capita in 2004 and projections of 2030
Note: International comparison
World energy outlook 2006. OECD/IEA (2006), Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections, as modified by the EEA.
- Russia is projected to have the highest increase in TEC (52 %) and FEC (51 %) per capita from 2004 to 2030. TEC and FEC per capita in the other transition countries, which include EECCA (excluding Russia), SEE and some EU-10 countries, are also projected to increase (TEC by 32 %, FEC by 41 %), by less than in Russia but more than in OECD Europe (TEC by 10 %, FEC by 17 %). At the same time, absolute values of TEC and FEC per capita in these other transition countries are projected to remain the lowest in Europe (2.9 toe TEC, 1.9 toe FEC), and levels in OECD Europe to remain 50 % higher than in Russia and more than 100 % higher than in the other transition countries.
- Globally, China is projected to have the most significant increase in TEC (90 %) and FEC (89 %) per capita and the US the smallest (TEC by 4%, FEC by 6%) to 2030. This, however, is not expected to remove current regional inequalities. For example, FEC per capita in 2030 in the US (5.7 toe) is expected to remain almost four times that in China (1.5 toe) and more than ten times that in India (0.5 toe).
- In contrast to Europe and North America, TEC is growing faster than FEC in Russia, India and China, reflecting the use of less efficient technologies, mostly for power generation.
- World TEC is projected to grow by 53 %, from 11 204 Mtoe in 2004 to 17 095 Mtoe in 2030. The fast-growing economies of Asia, Latin America and Africa are expected to account for 70 % of this increase, the OECD countries for almost a quarter and the transition countries for the remaining 6 %. China's share of world TEC is projected to increase from 15 % to 20 %.
* Projections are based on the IEA reference case scenario, which takes into account government policies enacted and adopted by mid-2006, even though many of these have not been fully implemented. Possible, potential or even unlikely future measures are not considered. The reference scenario is based on the UNSTAT projections of population growth (world average growth 1 % per year for 2004-2030) and OECD and International Monetary Fund projections for economic development (world average growth 3.4 % per year for 2004-2030). It is assumed that energy-supply and energy use technologies become steadily more efficient, though at varying speeds for each fuel and each sector, depending on the potential for efficiency gains and the stage of technology development and commercialisation. New policies - excluded from the Reference scenario - would be needed to accelerate deployment of more efficient and cleaner technologies.
Input data to WEO model - technological developments
Input data to WEO model - fuel prices
Input data to WEO model - population
Input data to WEO model - economic growth
Input data to WEO model - electricity consumption
Input data to WEO model - electricity prices
Input data to WEO model - primary demand for fossil fuels
Output from WEO - Final energy consumption
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