Final energy consumption - outlook from EEA (Outlook 048) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
- Outlook 048
Key policy question: Are we using less final energy?
Despite continuing increases, final energy consumption is expected to decouple significantly in relative terms from GDP over the coming decades, consolidating past improvements in energy intensity.
Final energy consumption in the EU-27 is expected to increase by 20% from 2005 to 2030. While during this period only 15 % of increase in final energy consumption is expected in EU 15 (about 48% - in New 12 Member States), EU 15 share of EU 27 final energy consumption is projected to shift insignificantly (from 86% to 83%).
Transport has been the fastest-growing sector since 1990 and is projected to stay as the largest consumer of final energy in 2030.
Decoupling indicator of final energy consumption, EU 27 (Index 100=2000)
Final Energy demand by sector - EU27(Baseline Scenario)
Final Energy demand by sector - EU15 (Baseline Scenario)
Final Energy demand by sector - NM12 (Baseline Scenario)
Final energy consumption for transport and stationary purposes (e.g. in industry and households) increases by 20.5% from 2005 to 2030. This is 10 percentage points more than the growth of primary energy demand (which, in addition to final energy, includes losses in electricity generation and other transformation processes as well as energy use for non energy purposes, such as chemical feedstock). The lower percentage increase of total primary energy consumption compared with final energy demand means that there are significant improvements in the transformation efficiency of the EU energy system over the next decades. The replacement of old power stations with more efficient ones is driving this development. Final energy demand grows most in transport, followed by the services sector with robust growth also in industry (especially lighter non-energy intensive industries). By comparison, demand growth is rather low for households and agriculture.
Transport energy demand in 2030 is projected to be 28% higher than in 2005. After having seen very high growth rates in the 1990s, the increase of energy use for transportation decelerates. In the projection period, transport energy demand growth rates decline over time. This reflects the decreasing growth rates over time of both passenger and freight transport activity. In addition, there are fuel efficiency improvements in particular in passenger transport (e.g. private cars). Therefore, energy demand in transport grows less than transport activity (in passenger- and tonnekm). However, the assumption that the car industry would deliver on the CO2 targets for new cars by 2008/09 had to be dropped and therefore fuel efficiency improves somewhat less than expected a few years ago.
Contrary to the past, the projection period displays some significant fuel switching in the transport sector as a result of the implementation of the biofuels Directive. Under baseline conditions the biofuels share in 2010 rises strongly to almost 4% - however, falling somewhat short of the indicative target of 5.75%. Nevertheless, this target would be met in 2015 and the share continues increasing up to 2030 to reach 9.5%. As a consequence, CO2 emissions from transport are expected to grow less than energy use (20% versus 28% from 2005 to 2030).
Energy demand in industry is 20% higher in 2030 compared with 2005. Heavy industries (such as iron and steel) grow slower than lighter less energy intensive ones (e.g. engineering). Energy intensity in industry (energy consumption in industry related to value added) improves therefore by 1.4% per year up to 2030. This shift in the production structure also entails much higher use of electricity in industry (+ 37%). With strong penetration of electricity in industry there is much lower growth of CO2 (+6%) compared with growth of industrial energy consumption (+20%).
Energy demand for services is projected to be 26% higher in 2030 than in 2005, reflecting the increasing share of services in modern economies. This development is driven by increasing demand for electricity (e.g. office equipment). With this strong penetration of electricity in the service sector, there is a stabilisation of CO2 emissions from services compared with the 26% increase of energy demand.
On the contrary, energy demand in agriculture increases least, growing nevertheless by 8% between 2005 and 2030.
Household energy demand is expected to rise by 12% between 2005 and 2030. The increasing number of households (+14% up to 2030), following demographic and lifestyle changes towards smaller household size, is an important factor for this development. On the other hand, there are some saturation effects concerning heating energy demand. The increasing use of electric appliances and air conditioning entail rising electricity demand (+34%). Given this shift towards electricity use by households, CO2 emissions from households remain stable up to 2030 at the present level (compared with a 12% increase in energy demand).
Overall, electricity shows the most important increase in final energy demand (+38% up to 2030). There is also strong growth of heat from CHP and district heating (+17%). Oil demand increases by 12% due to growing transportation fuel demand and despite some replacement by gas and electricity in stationary uses. Natural gas continues to make inroads for heating purposes (+14%).
Solid fuels continue to decline strongly so that their use becomes more and more concentrated in some heavy industries. Final demand of renewables almost double, encompassing both traditional uses, such as wood combustion, but also biofuels in transport and solar water heating. Higher deployment of biofuels is the major driving force for greater renewables penetration in final demand (as distinct from renewables used for power generation, where hydro and wind are established sources with a great potential for further wind penetration).
Input data to PRIMES - macro-economic data: demographics, antional accounts, sectoral activity and income variables - output from EUROSTAT data
Input data to PRIMES model - structure of energy consumtpion and structure of activity variables - output from EUROSTAT data
Output data from PRIMES - Final energy demand by fuel and sector - output from PRIMES model
provided by Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
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