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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA / CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA (Outlook 031) - Assessment published Jun 2007

CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA (Outlook 031) - Assessment published Jun 2007

This content has been archived on 12 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
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Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Tags:
climate change | climate | forward looking indicators | emissions
DPSIR: Pressure
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 031
Geographical coverage:

[+] Show Map

 
Contents
 

Key policy question: What is the projected progress in GHG emissions reduction?

Key messages

The RAINS* model provides information about the projections for the methane emissions. For the "current legislation" scenario a continued increase of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions is expected, leading to 35 percent increase in 2030 as compared to 2000. CH4 emissions from all sectors are expected to grow due to increased economic activities and absence of wide-spread emission control measures. In Western Europe and Newly Independent states overall CH4 emissions will only slightly increase.

If all maximum technically feasible reductions (MFR scenario) were applied to the full extent, global CH4 emissions would stabilize up to 2030, though at considerable costs. Under the MFR scenario CH4 emissions in Western Europe and Newly Independent states would be able to decrease on 31% and 16% relatively.

Projected CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2030 , RAINS model - most feasible reduction scenario

Note: N/A

Data source:

World Energy Outlook, OECD, 2008

Downloads and more info

Projected CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2030, RAINS model - current legislation scenario (CLE)

Note: N/A

Data source:

World Energy Outlook, OECD, 2008

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

  • For methane, for the "current legislation" scenario a continued increase of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions, leading to 35 percent higher emissions in 2030 than in 2000.

 
It is expected that  in Western Europe CH4 emissions could reach 23.5 million tons (3% higher than in 2000) and in Newly Independent countries - 48.6 million tons (10 % higher than in 2000). Overall, emissions from all sectors are expected to grow due to increased economic activities and absence of wide-spread emission control measures.

  • If all "maximum technically feasible reductions" (MFR scenario) were applied to the full extent, global CH4 emissions would stabilize up to 2030, though at considerable costs.
  • In Western Europe total amount of CH4 emissions is expected to be 15.8 million tons and 36.4 million tons in Newly Independent Countries. This means that under the MFR scenario CH4 emissions in Western Europe and Newly Independent states would be able to decrease on 31% and 16% relatively.
  • A wide range of technical measures is presently available to reduce methane emissions. Such measures include the treatment of manure to generate biogas, measures affecting enteric fermentation, diversion of waste disposal, controlling waste disposal sites, reduction in distribution losses of natural gas, gas recovery in coal mines as well as during oil and gas extraction, alternative rice strains, etc.

*the assessment was done in Dec 2006 based on the RAINS model a predecessor of GAINS model and includes only GH4 emissions. A new GAINS model calculates all six GHG emissions and provides a wider range of scenarios.  

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Document Actions
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100