The probabilistic implications for global temperature increase up to year 2400
The FAIRSiMCaP pathways shown are those for the B2 baseline scenario based on a climate sensitivity that assumes the 1.54.5 oC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (IPCC TAR), being a 90 % confidence interval of a lognormal distribution. Shown are the median (thick solid line) and 90 % confidence interval boundaries (dashed lines), as well as the 1, 10, 33, 66, 90, and 99 % percentiles (borders of shaded areas). Probability density function is based on Wigley and Raper, 2001.
For references, please go to http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/the-probabilistic-implications-for-global-temperature-increase-up-to-year-2400 or scan the QR code.
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