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The probabilistic implications for global temperature increase up to year 2400

Figure Created 12 Nov 2009 Published 12 Nov 2009 Last modified 29 Nov 2012, 11:38 AM
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Above preindustrial levels for pathways stabilising at 450 and 550 ppm CO2equivalent concentration levels (upper row) and the pathways that peak at 510 and 550 ppm respectively (lower row)

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The FAIRSiMCaP pathways shown are those for the B2 baseline scenario based on a climate sensitivity that assumes the 1.54.5 oC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (IPCC TAR), being a 90 % confidence interval of a lognormal distribution. Shown are the median (thick solid line) and 90 % confidence interval boundaries (dashed lines), as well as the 1, 10, 33, 66, 90, and 99 % percentiles (borders of shaded areas). Probability density function is based on Wigley and Raper, 2001.

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