This figure shows the future distribution of climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell (Aglais urticae) under the A2 climate change scenario and two future time periods (2021-2050 left, 2051-2080 right). Dark grey areas show space that remains suitable, magenta areas space that is lost and green areas show space that could be gained under full dispersal. Northern parts of Europe are expected to remain suitable for the Small Tortoiseshell under all scenarios, but large areas of central Europe would become unsuitable. The worst case loss is 55% of its climatic niche by 2080 under no dispersal or 46% loss under full dispersal.
Albania,Andorra,Austria,Belarus,Belgien,Belgium,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Bulgarien,Croatia,Cyprus,Czech Republic,Denmark,Deutschland,Dänemark,Estland,Estonia,Finland,Finnland,France,Frankreich,Germany,Greece,Griechenland,Vereinigtes Königreich,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Irland,Italien,Italy,Kosovo (UNSCR 1244/99),Latvia,Lettland,Liechtenstein,Litauen,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Luxemburg,Macedonia (FYR),Malta,Moldova,Monaco,Montenegro,Netherlands,Niederlande,Norway,Norwegen,Poland,Polen,Portugal,Romania,Rumänien,Russia,San Marino,Schweden,Schweiz,Serbia,Slovakia,Slovenia,Slowakei,Slowenien,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,Ukraine,Ungarn,United Kingdom,Zypern,Österreich
Settele, J., Kudrna, O., Harpke, A., Kühn, I., Van Swaay, C., Verovnik, R., Warren, M. S., Wiemers, M., Hanspach, J., Hickler, T. und others, 2008, Climatic risk atlas of European butterflies, Pensoft Moscow.
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