The energy consumption of households is decomposed in different explanatory effects: change in average dwelling size, increasing number of appliances (more electrical appliances) and central heating diffusion, energy efficiency improvement (as measured from ODEX) and change in behaviour related to more confort.
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Don't forget about your local shops.
New supermarkets in the area can reduce business for smaller shops. Pollution and congestion would be significantly less if consumers frequented their local shops, rather than travelling long distances to out-of-town shopping centres.
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