Birds and butterflies are sensitive to environmental change and can indicate the health of the environment. Long-term monitoring shows significant declines in farmland birds and grassland butterflies. Between 1990 and 2019, the index of 168 common birds decreased by 8% in the 25 EU Member States with monitoring schemes. The decline in common farmland birds over the same period was much more pronounced at 27%, while the common forest bird index increased by 5%. Between 1991 and 2018 the grassland butterfly index also declined strongly, by 25%, in the 19 EU countries with monitoring data.
Monitoring vegetation response to water deficit due to droughts is necessary to be able to introduce effective measures to increase the resilience of ecosystems in line with the EU’s nature restoration plan — a key element of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030. Between 2000 and 2016, Europe was affected by severe droughts, causing average yearly vegetation productivity losses covering around 121 000 km 2 . This was particularly notable in 2003, when drought affected most parts of Europe, covering an estimated 330 000 km 2 of forests, non-irrigated arable land and pastures. Drought impact was also relatively severe in 2005 and 2012.
Crop production in Europe became 12% less water intensive between 2005 and 2016. The total water input to crops under rainfed and irrigated conditions for each unit of gross value added generated from crop production, excluding subsidies, decreased from 5 m 3 to 4.4 m 3 over the period.
Western Europe demonstrated the lowest water intensity of crop production over the period, with 3.5 m 3 of total water input for each unit of gross value added generated. However, there was no significant change in the trend between 2005 and 2016.
In eastern Europe, crop production became 31 % less water intensive between 2005 and 2016. The total water input to crops fell from 7.3 m 3 to 5.0 m 3 for each unit of gross value added generated over the period.
Crop production also became 13 % and 11% less water intensive in northern Europe and southern Europe, respectively between 2005 and 2016. In northern Europe, total water input to crops fell from 11.2 m 3 to 9.7 m 3 over the period, while in southern Europe it fell from 4.2 m 3 to 3.8 m 3 .
Harmonised in situ data on soil moisture are not available across the EU. Modelled soil moisture content has significantly decreased in the Mediterranean region and increased in parts of northern Europe since the 1950s, as a result of past warming and precipitation changes.
Significant decreases in summer soil moisture content in the Mediterranean region and increases in north-eastern Europe are projected for the coming decades.
Yields of several rainfed crops are levelling off (e.g. wheat in some European countries) or decreasing (e.g. grapes in Spain), whereas yields of other crops (e.g. maize in northern Europe) are increasing. These changes are attributed partly to observed climate change, in particular warming.
Extreme climatic events, including droughts and heat waves, have negatively affected crop productivity in Europe during the first decade of the 21st century.
Future climate change could lead to both decreases and increases in average yield, depending on the crop type and the climatic and management conditions in the region. There is a general pattern of projected increases in productivity in northern Europe and reductions in southern Europe, but with differences between crop types.
Projected increases in extreme climatic events are expected to increase crop yield variability and to lead to yield reductions in the future throughout Europe.
The flowering of several perennial and annual crops has advanced by about two days per decade during the last 50 years.
Changes in crop phenology are affecting crop production and the relative performance of different crop species and varieties. The shortening of the grain-filling phase of cereals and oilseed crops can be particularly detrimental to yield.
Shortening of the growth phases of many crops is expected to continue, but this may be altered by selecting other crop cultivars and changing planting dates, which in some cases can lead to longer growth periods.
Climate change led to an increase in the crop water demand and thus the crop water deficit from 1995 to 2015 in large parts of southern and eastern Europe; a decrease has been estimated for parts of north-western Europe.
The projected increases in temperature will lead to increased evapotranspiration rates, thereby increasing crop water demand across Europe. This increase may partly be alleviated through reduced transpiration at higher atmospheric CO 2 levels.
The impact of increasing water requirements is expected to be most acute in southern and central Europe, where the crop water deficit and irrigation requirements are projected to increase. This may lead to an expansion of irrigation systems, even in regions currently without irrigation systems. However, this expansion may be constrained by projected reductions in water availability and increased demand from other sectors and for other uses.
The thermal growing season for agricultural crops in Europe has lengthened by more than 10 days since 1992. The delay in the end of the growing season has been more pronounced than the advance of the start of the season. The length of the growing season has increased more in northern and eastern Europe than in western and southern Europe.
The growing season is projected to increase further throughout most of Europe owing to the earlier onset of growth in spring and later senescence in autumn.
The projected lengthening of the thermal growing season would allow a northwards expansion of warm-season crops to areas that were not previously suitable. In parts of southern Europe (e.g. Spain), warmer conditions will allow crop cultivation to be shifted to the winter.
Agricultural nitrogen surpluses (the difference between all nutrient inputs and outputs on agricultural land) show a declining trend, thereby potentially reducing environmental pressures on soil, water and air. Many countries, however, still maintain a large surplus.
