Climate change mitigation - Outlook 2020 (Slovenia)

GHG projections are related to two possible scenarios of reduction - the first with some measures and the second scenario with additional ones. The second envisages a greater intensity of implementing measures in broad consumption and industry and increased financing amounting to €100 million. Since higher energy efficiency will only affect industry, the projections in broad consumption will only be impacted by greater intensity of implementing measures – additional funds for energy efficiency measures in buildings and additional funds for awarding favourable loans for energy efficiency and renewable energy measures (OP TGP-1, 2009).

Base GHG emissions for Slovenia amount to 20,354 kt CO₂ equivalent. A reduction of 8 % means that in the period 2008–2012 Slovenia would have to achieve average annual emissions of 18,726 kt CO₂ equiv. In achieving the Kyoto target, in accordance with resolution 11/CP.7 of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Slovenia can use CO₂ sinks tied to increased wood biomass in forests in the amount of 1.32 Tg CO₂ equiv. It follows from this that in the Kyoto period Slovenia must reduce average annual emissions to 20,046 kt CO₂ equivalent (OP TGP-1, 2009).

Projections of GHG emissions using the scenario with measures for the period 2008–2012 indicate a reduction in emissions to the value of 21,112 kt CO₂ equiv. or, with additional measures, 21,083 kt CO₂ equiv. both of which are above the target value of 18,726 kt CO₂ equiv. Even claiming the permitted sinks– the average permitted sinks for the period 2008–2012 amount to 1,320 kt CO₂ equiv. – the Kyoto target will not be met (Poročilo ETS, 2009). For this reason, based on both projections and permitted sinks, Slovenia will not fulfil its Kyoto obligations. The difference in emissions will have to be compensated by using flexible Kyoto mechanisms. At the envisaged price of 15 €/t CO₂, purchasing the necessary rights to emit GHGs in the period 2008–2012, based on projections that still do not include the effects of the economic crisis on emissions, Slovenia will need to spend a little less than €80 million (OP TGP-1, 2009).

Table 1 Projections of GHG emissions taking into account measures and additional measures, and comparison with Kyoto targets.

* Base year (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O – 1986; F-gases – 1995)
Source: ETS Report, 2009.

The chief sources of GHG emissions are energy supply and transport. In 2008 emissions from these two sectors should, together, remain the same – a reduction of emissions from heat and power generation as a result of lower quotas in the EU-ETS system, balanced by an increase in emissions from transport due to a major growth in sales of diesel fuel, largely to transit traffic. After 2008, emissions from generation should hardly change, mainly due to the set quotas for the period 2008-2012. Emissions from transport should gradually fall, in part due to the economic crisis and in part to the construction of railway infrastructure and an increase in public passenger transport. After 2012, owing to the reduced quotas in the EU-ETS system, a reduction in GHG emissions from energy supply is envisaged, and an increase in emissions from transport. The latter should be ascribed to increased transport, as a result of the enlargement of the EU to include the countries of the western Balkans. After a slight rise in the period 2008-2012, partly from industrial emissions not included in EU-ETS, emissions from industry will decline after 2012 markedly. This also applies to broad consumption, especially after 2009. A reduction will be the consequence of implementing measures in buildings and increasing the share of renewable energy sources in heat production. In agriculture, owing to the growing numbers of animals, emissions will show a modest increase, while, owing to reduced quantities of biodegradable waste being disposed of, emissions from waste will fall. (OP TGP-1, 2009)

In 2010 GHG emissions compared to 2007 should be lower from energy supply, -8 %; industry, -11 %; and waste -1 %; but higher in transport, +12 %; other areas, +34 % in the scenario with some measures and +33 % in the scenario with additional measures; and +2 % from agriculture. The scenario for 2020 points to a similar situation – compared to 2007, emissions will be lower in energy supply, -24 %; industry, -22 %; and -16 % from waste; but higher from transport, +24 %; from other areas, +18 % or +14 % depending on the scenario; and +4 % from agriculture (OP TGP-1, 2009).

Emissions from those bound by the EU-ETS system for the period 2008-2012 have been determined through the amount of rights to GHG emissions under the National Plan for Allocating Emission Coupons for 2008-2012. The average annual quantity of rights allocated to existing facilities in this period amounts to 8,168 kt CO₂, while for new entries 131 kt CO₂ of rights have been reserved. In total, emissions from EU-ETS sources amount to 8,299 kt CO₂ equivalent. Based on projections, actual emissions from EU-ETS sources in 2008-2012 have been forecast at 9,514 kt CO₂ equivalent. The difference or direct effect of EU-ETS equates to 1,215 kt CO₂ equivalent.

Table 2 Comparison of actual emissions from EU-ETS sources and allocated rights based on the national plan for allocating emission coupons

Source: ETS Report, 2009

After 2012, the EU-ETS scheme should include all existing sources from the period 2008-2012 plus additional sources involved in aluminium production. In order to determine emission rights after 2012, the annual quantity of rights in the period 2008-2012 was reduced each year by 1.74 %, using 2010 as the base year. Taking into account that emissions from sources in EU-ETS with allocated rights to GHG emissions are already determined, we may calculate from the total target a target for the period 2008-2012 for sources of emissions that are not included in EU-ETS. Fulfilment of the Kyoto obligations depends entirely on these sources. Taking into account sinks for fulfilling the Kyoto obligations, the average annual emissions from other sources in the period 2008-2012 would have to be lower than or equal to 11,747 kt CO₂ equivalent.